And that means for northern areas the risk of tropical mischief in the form of depression then cyclone activity may develop. That could evolve rather quickly in the coming days so pay attention to forecasts in the next 2-3 days. At this stage, the higher risk has shifted west of the NT, but these things are low confidence forecast.

For the remainder of the NT, more of the same, the tropics descending across the entire NT. That will lead to afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, some severe over Central areas with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding over the coming days.

Coastal storms and convergent showers may also deliver flash flooding over the Top End as well.

Through the weekend, the rainfall and windy weather will increase bringing a nice drop in temperatures for the Top End. Rainfall could become locally heavy, even without the presence of a tropical low/cyclone. If there is a low/cyclone, then rainfall could be excessive for the Top End.

Overall it is a wet week.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains largely unchanged from last night with the heaviest falls associated with the southward movement of the monsoonal trough. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds likely to develop for the Top End. Tropical lows or cyclones may enhance rainfall totals exceeding what is advertised here. The rainfall down the Stuart Highway will remain above average in response to the high moisture levels and a trough near stationary in the region. A Top End chart will be issued in the coming day or so once confidence builds surrounding the monsoon and or subsequent tropical lows.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms will cover most of the NT on Wednesday but more widespread north of Alice Springs where severe thunderstorms are possible with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding. That will be theme for a lot of this week. The storms over the northern areas could also be gusty with a southeasterly steer returning.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

A high risk exists for interior parts of the NT and extend to the Top End with rainfall rates exceeding 100mm/hr in many locations. With slow storm motion, flash flooding will feature quite readily. A low to moderate chance is in place for the Top End with afternoon showers and thunderstorms, mainly inland.

Tropical Depression Watch - January 20-27th 2022

The tropical depressions are expected to form in the coming week in line with the southward movement of the monsoonal trough. This will mean that the tropical weather could evolve very quickly across the region so stay up to date with the forecasts. Highest risks have shifted slightly west, but anywhere from the Top End through to the Pilbara needs to pay attention. Also another area that could be drawn in the coming days may be the Gulf Of Carpentaria.

DATA - More information can be found in the video with the daily breakdown nationally for the short and medium term.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The modelling will chop and change as we go along, it is high amplitude, dynamic and this lends itself to being volatile. So use this as a guide. The takeaway is, humid, more unsettled than normal, wetter than normal for many areas away from the SWLD of WA and severe weather chances increasing for northern, central and eastern areas of the nation. Be aware that tropical systems up north will change you rainfall odds as well from run to run.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

I don't think I have seen it as moist across the nation since the Brisbane Floods of 10 years ago. So this is a dangerous atmosphere and with this main ingredient for rainfall running at near record levels, that means all we need is deep instability to produce heavy rainfall. With the slack upper level wind profile, that means areas slated in for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms could see that persist for multiple days increasing flood risks. So there is a lot of concern from me in relation to each low pressure system that moves across the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information can be found in the video.

A closer look in. In areas that are seeing the mottled and uneven rainfall guide here, be aware that with the moisture content at near record levels in some locations, that could result in some areas recording 50-100mm in an hour from slow moving thunderstorms, so this is a guide!

A broader view of the NT - note the tropical system over the Gulf, will be somewhere else next run, it is just signalling the return of monsoonal weather.

More details coming up this evening looking at all things modelling and rainfall, especially important information for those staring down a lot of moisture and rainfall forecast in the coming week.

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