The tropical moisture over the Top End is expected to take a trip south down the Stuart Highway, with showers and thunderstorms likely to extend west of the Stuart Highway this week and reaching the southern districts by later this week.

Some of the storms over the north could turn severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.

The storm activity over the southern areas of the NT could be gusty with damaging winds during Thursday and Friday.

Some modelling has supported heavy rainfall for the southern areas of the NT this weekend with flash flooding developing, but the consistency run to run is still quite poor.

Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to remain scattered, uneven in distribution with some areas seeing more than 1 month's worth of rainfall and other locations still waiting. The rainfall chances will be increasing down the western border of the NT and will reach southern border regions by mid to late week and there is the chance of these areas recording their first rainfalls of the season. Some of that could be quite heavy as well.

Thunderstorm Forecast Monday

Thunderstorms are expected to form in a broad region of the Top End and will begin to extend south down the western border. Some of the storms could be gusty with heavy rainfall over the Top End. The weather will then ease at night.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more - Note as per the video the similar spread of moisture to GFS.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more - the ensemble data is wetter than this for most of the north, central and east.

A closer look in - convective rainfall and the GFS and CMC are much wetter.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more

More details coming up a little later.

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