The trough lingering over the western border is set to deepen once again as we track into Friday as it is picked up by another trough and front passing through WA. This will invigorate the thunderstorm activity throughout Friday with severe weather possible over the southern districts with damaging winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding also back onto the menu as well for central and southern areas later in the day.
The airmass is largely unchanged as we track a very moisture and unstable atmosphere, which is likely to erupt into clusters of thunderstorms and showers across the entire NT once again.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Some record rainfall totals are quite possible throughout this period with accumulations smashing November records. The rainfall distribution remains scattered and heavy in some locations. Other areas will see just light falls from time to time but as you know the rainfall is uneven in distribution.
A broader look at a wet and unsettled NT.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms again random and scattered throughout much of the nation including the NT. Heavy falls and gusty winds are possible throughout the southern and central districts with a trough approaching from the west.
DATA - Using GFS tonight as many of you will look heavily at the Euro - this is the drier option on the table. More information on the GFS data in the video and you can catch up with the model comparison coming up at 9pm tonight for your region.
00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
This pattern would be a better outcome for farmers over VIC, SA and NSW with a drier look and a chance to dry out for eastern farmers to get in and get some work done through the harvest but it is an outlier against other data sets. If the upper level system from the south comes over VIC and TAS, it may disrupt the moisture coming in from the north this time next week, and keep it through QLD. But time will tell.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
This is the driest model for the 2 week period and I will have more details on this later tonight with the full model spread.
A closer look in
More details on all things rain and moisture coming up at 9pm tonight.