The unsettled weather continues, with a deep trough continuing to control the weather for the next week.

Coverage of thunderstorms over the north expected to increase with the risk of severe thunderstorms, damaging winds the main concern.

Rainfall is also expected to increase further too with the moisture content in the upper atmosphere expected to deepen.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 days

Rainfall is scattered and uneven through this outlook period, however the coverage of rainfall will increase in intensity. The moisture content is deepening and the trough sharpening so expect an increase in the precipitation during this period.

The rain is travelling down the NT into SA with a series of strong troughs.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and persist well into the night over inland areas south of Katherine. We are coming to the time of year where thunderstorms may form in the overnight hours inland of the coast through the Top End as well. Storms may be gusty with heavy falls.

DATA - Refer to video for more details.

GFS 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 days

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 days

GFS 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 days

Note the tropical intrusion of moisture (the yellow and red shadings) dislodging from the tropics and through the Indian Ocean.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

The numbers will chop and change from run to run.

CMC 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 15 days

A very wet look for the coming 2 weeks, this is near record rainfall if it falls in the coming 2 weeks for parts of the outback

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks

Wetter still in the data sets tonight.

I will be having tomorrow off to deal with a few other projects, and back on Sunday with more updates on the short and medium term and a look at Summer 2021/22

2 views0 comments