A trough is in the process of moving south through the NT, we have seen a good flare up of middle level convective activity overnight and during the morning. The convective activity over the northern districts is underway, mainly along the sea breeze front as that moves inland. Scattered falls over 20mm can be expected with thunderstorm activity.

There is a low chance of damaging winds with thunderstorms through the western border regions tomorrow but more likely from Wednesday.

More showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the NT daily in the next week, with some pockets recording above average rainfall throughout this period, while others remain fairly untouched.

Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

As mentioned earlier, the rainfall is expected to remain uneven in distribution but remain a daily fixture through many areas of the NT, with the rainfall coverage gradually increasing over the next week. Some locations will see falls in excess of the average for both October and November with storms turning severe.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will redevelop over inland areas along a surface trough entering the west of the state. Storms will be mainly elevated and possibly gusty with moderate rainfall, these will approach the Alice Springs region later in the day. Up north of Elliot, the usual afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms can be expected between 2-10pm. Most storms, not all will be forming during this time, however we are starting to see morning activity given the very moist and unstable airmass in play with the upper moving eastwards.

A broader look at the NT - note the storm activity and chances moving south down the western border.


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The surface pressure pattern is fairly similar to GFS in the short term for the nation, however where it differs is in the placement of the developing low along a trough that is passing over southeast SA and VIC into TAS later this week. That will have major implications on rainfall totals for the southeast, the low further south, less rainfall, low further north, more rainfall. Storms ongoing in the short term over QLD on Tuesday should clear off for the most part on Wednesday before the weather dries for a period. Storms return over QLD from the weekend. Over the north, the showers and storms to continue for much of this period and creep further south towards the SA and west into much of WA where showers and storms turn more numerous. For southeast and eastern Australia, this is where the next rainfall event will come from to kick off November. The west, cooler than normal weather for much of this week with showery weather then it turns drier by later this week, but those temperatures will struggle to get warm to hot for a while, especially over the SWLD.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The moisture creep will continue over the coming 24 hours, it is already running down the western NT border into a trough coming out of WA into SA. This will be the case tomorrow and expect to see more cloud and shower activity coming southeast into SA. The moisture will continue to pool over the northern half of the nation during the coming 10 days and multiple rainfall events are expected to form out of this event. The weather turning sharply humid over the coming week for the northern half of the nation as well. So farmers be aware that the moisture will be above average and long duration through these regions with rainfall and warm conditions.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Not much change from this morning, the issue in the short term to watch is the position and speed of a low developing on the trough mid to late week over SA into VIC and TAS. This will impact rainfall expectations during the coming period. The weather is expected to remain wet and humid over northern Australia with uneven distribution of rainfall. The west seeing showery weather over the coming few days before drier air returns. The positive SAM may develop in this week with showery periods returning for the east coast. But the confidence is low at the moment.

A closer look in - this will change.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more details

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more details

More details coming up after 9pm EDT.

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