The seasonal shift towards wet season proper is expected to unfurl from this weekend with a deep layer of moisture responding to a trough of low pressure that will set up over the base of the Top End, providing dynamic support for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.

A tropical wave is expected to form over the north this weekend and spread west bringing the focus of showers and thunderstorms along and to the west of this feature. The Gulf Line will roar through the NT on Saturday night or Sunday with better coverage of rainfall for the Top End.

For the south, it is a persistence forecast though there may be a few thundery showers on Sunday and into early next week near a mid level trough. Falls will be light while the temperatures soar into the 40s.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is limited for southern areas with the dry airmass and stable weather thanks to high pressure dominating proceedings down there. For the Top End, the humidity is set to increase as is the instability leading to more widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of these gusty at times from Sunday and through next week. There is the chance of a monsoonal trough developing in waters offshore the north which may bring more rainfall chances towards the end of next week at the earliest.

The state view shows the rainfall moving southwards as we go.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected to develop once again during the afternoon and evening with some gusty winds and heavy rainfall. We are getting to the stage now that overnight and morning thunderstorms are also possible for northern parts of the Top End as well.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More thorough information in the video - but watching the following - the monsoonal flow up north, the severe weather threat over the east and southeast next week and the heatwave out west.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The east is on the cusp of another prolonged period of very high moisture levels. If the westerly surge in the medium term does not verify and remains easterly, I think many over the south and east may be in trouble relating to flooding. Note the very deep moisture over the north of the nation. And the southwest drier and hot for most of this period.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video.

A closer look in - note/watch the rainfall spread over the norther parts of the nation and north of the nation over the Timor and Arafura Seas.

More weather coming up from 7am EDT

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