NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS THINNING OUT, DRY AND HOT IN THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS.

That is about it really, not much to say given the dry air that is surging through the deep tropics in the coming 2-3 days with a reduction in rainfall, sadly not the heat levels, they will be heading up.


For central and southern parts of the NT, dry, hot to very hot and a chance to dry out watch those flood levels come down. That will still take about a week but the reduction in rainfall is assisting in getting supplies to remote areas which is important.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be well below average with a dry airmass for February stretching through the tropics. In the absence of a trough, the rainfall is expected to resume build up expectations with hit and miss rainfall, but many areas likely to see below average rainfall.

No rainfall is expected for interior parts south of about Elliot at this time through to the SA border with ridging in place.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to be scattered to numerous during the afternoon and evening over the northern tropics with some of the falls heavy, leading to areas of flash flooding. That is due to slow storm motion. Most of these likely to be north of Elliot once again and running down into the Kimberly along a weakening trough. Morning thunderstorms over the Top End coast possible once again on Wednesday

DATA - Refer to video for the daily breakdown


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

No change from this morning which means a settled 7 days for much of the nation can be expected with no severe weather events at this time. The bulk of the inland of the nation dry under sinking air motion coupled with dry air. The coastal areas out through northwest WA is where you will find the wettest weather in the country. The tropics also expecting to see below average rainfall and thunderstorm activity for the coming week and above average temperatures. The east coast will see some light showers, but overall a drier and quieter week of weather with onshore winds at times. A good degree of variation in the temperatures over southern Australia throughout the period with the fast flow pattern which is reflected in the cold front activity south of the nation

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Very dry air nationally means low rainfall chances for the coming week. Some evidence that begins to be overridden in the medium term, but exactly how that looks remains uncertain at this time with the fast flow pattern likely to be with southern Australia for the coming week and possibly the following week. Each wave introducing more dry air over the nation and suppressing rainfall chances. With winds remaining out of the west, this will keep moisture content low over the inland areas as well.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for further information

A closer look in - the drier signal is continuing thanks to the out of phase MJO in the phase 2-3 which places it west of the nation. Other agencies are forecasting the MJO to move across into Australia next week, I do not think that is quite correct on current guidance but will keep watching.

More details coming up from 8am EDT - enjoy the quiet weather pattern - it is helping me recharge my batteries ahead of the next crazy wave of weather which won't be too far away with the latest indications that La Nina may be with us until the end of April!! More on that later this week.


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