NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SCATTERED POCKETS - A TASTE OF BUILD UP.

But the good news is for those looking for more of that dry eternal summer - drier air does surge next week with a southerly flow redeveloping over the nation with new high pressure propelling that dry air north.


Ahead of it, the weather is much more humid and unstable with scattered thunderstorms possible over the north this afternoon.


Thunderstorm Forecast for the remainder of Thursday.

Isolated high based storms are ongoing over the eastern Roper Districts as well. There may be thunderstorms develop over the seabreeze front moving in this afternoon over inland areas of the coast south of Darwin.

The boundary moving north is the area of weather that is going to bring areas of rain and thunderstorms throughout the Tanami, Lasseter and Barkly regions from Friday into Saturday. There could be pockets of flash flooding over the Barkly and Lasseter regions with thunderstorms later tomorrow into Saturday.

Lets have a look at the latest blog post for the nation.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

The rainfall is connected mainly to the boundary moving north into the moisture surging in from the northeast, that is reserved for areas from south of Araluen through to the NT border. There will be scattered falls over the Top End with some locations recording 25mm in an hour for some, but predicting who gets what ahead of time is somewhat impossible, so just be aware that there will be some pulse storms delivering uneven distribution of rainfall. Any one spot over the north of the Territory getting wet is in the 40-50% range over the coming days before the weather dries out next week.


00z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

The pattern in good agreement with GFS finally, with the passage of the front in a similar time scale through the coming 3 days over SA, then into VIC and NSW. The boundary that moves north through QLD and NT is also expected to dissipate with the weather drying out early next week through much of the nation under a high pressure system. The only difference in the short term is to watch if a low forms closer to the southeast coast of NSW/VIC during the weekend, as that could enhance rainfall over the southeast third of the nation. The last 2 systems, GFS has picked this ahead of Euro in the day prior to a system unfolding so will watch carefully. Otherwise the next system to watch later next week is an injection of moisture through the northern flank of westerly winds over the southern states which could trigger patchy areas of rainfall for southern parts of WA through VIC, heavy over TAS if this verifies. Fine and dry for much of the inland. The tropics will also see a nice dry out coming during early next week.


00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Showers and storms over the coming days will amplify a tad over the northern tropics ahead of a dry surge later in the weekend. The boundary bringing the colder drier shift through the NT will bring moderate to heavy rainfall later tomorrow through Sunday morning with local thunderstorms about over the Lasseter, Tanami and Barkly districts. Then drier air takes over a clears the state, however moisture will return later next week so enjoy the dry while you can.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Values next 10 days

You can see that moisture on track to merge over the eastern states bringing up to 1 months worth of rainfall to many areas, but the rainfall gradient is very tight in response to the timing of the front in relation to the moisture sweeping south. All of that sweeps out with a dry southwester through the weekend, and really next week the dry air under sinking air leads to clear skies and light winds for many areas. Then the weather turns warmer from the west with humidity increasing through the mid and upper levels associated with a series of troughs moving through the westerly wind regime to the south of the nation. And trade winds will pump moisture back into the tropics later next week after another dry surge works north.

00z Euro Simulated Satellite Imagery next 10 days

The latest satellite simulation poses interesting weather developing through southern and western parts of the nation later in the outlook post the large rainfall event this weekend.

I will have a model wrap for the rainfall event coming up after 9pm tonight. Make sure you catch up on that details.


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