The temperatures over the south are near record values in some locations, with mid to high 40s over the southwest desert. The weather is expected to remain very hot over the course of the next 3-4 days. The heat however will begin to reduce as more moisture gets drawn in from the north and northeast.

The ridging over the south of the country is expected to remain firm through the weekend and into early next week with hot weather over the north of the nation and milder weather for coastal areas.

On the northern periphery of the upper high is where you will find the showers and thunderstorms over the Top End. A impulse of strong southeasterly winds will likely bring a burst of strong to severe storms on Friday and over the weekend, then a trough will form at the base of the Top End from the weekend into next week with scattered showers and thunderstorms, these increasing towards Christmas.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be pretty lean for December over the coming 2-3 days. The rainfall is expected to increase however for northern areas from the weekend and through next week with heavy falls redeveloping, in line with seasonal expectations. A lot of rumbles on the social media channels over tropical cyclone activity about during Christmas, no that is not going to happen, but an increase in wet weather and reduction in heat values is expected. The rainfall becoming more widespread and spreading southwards from after Christmas through New Year. There is evidence of a westerly flow developing over the Top End from later next week as well.

The moisture will eventually spill south in the outlook period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are expected to feature once again during the afternoon and evening, the storms still below average in terms of coverage for this time of year, and mainly over the far north and about the Tiwi Islands. Thunderstorms may be gusty.

A broader look at the thunderstorm activity.

DATA - More details in the video above.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More on the day by day breakdown in the video. This is the least likely outcome out of the modelling this evening, but point to it as to highlight the volatility in the modelling and how quickly it can change and I will keep on the GFS to show you this in the coming days.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

I am showing you this as a point of reference to the least likely outcome with the drier air persisting, which I do not support. I will have more details on the moisture and rainfall coming up from 9pm EDT. For those in northern and eastern Australia, pay attention to the forecasts because they will change rapidly in coming days and likely turning very wet.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in -the model is expressing the heavier rainfall is around the corner and the high temperatures over the interior is a give away to this shift coming within the coming 10 days.

More after 9pm EDT.

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