NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NORTH, SPREADING SOUTH NEXT WEEK.

Very warm weather continues for much of the NT with the usual scattered showers and thunderstorms. We are likely to see an increase in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the weekend and into next week as a trough develops over the base of the Top End.


The record run of overnight temperatures and humidity is expected to continue for another few days, adding more fuel to the storm development, once we lose the presence of the upper high. That is what is holding back the atmosphere from really letting loose with the severe weather that can accompany the thunderstorms during build up.


The moisture will creep south into the southern and central areas of the NT during next week and daily storms NT wide can be expected as we move through next week, some of these could turn severe with damaging winds likely from a week from now.


Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

Rainfall is expected to remain fairly scattered with uneven distribution of rainfall likely, though an uptick in rainfall is likely from mid to late next week. That will be as the upper high gets a move on, this allows the air to become more unstable and more supportive of numerous showers and thunderstorms. Once this happens, the rainfall is expected to turn sharply wetter.

A broader look at the NT - above average falls may shift south. I may increase falls for the Roper and into western QLD if the trends continue.



Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are expected to fire once again, mainly between 2 and 10pm with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall likely. The upper high will see showers and storms decrease after sunset at this time.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern again largely unchanged from this morning, which is a good thing in terms of forecasting, however the position, scale and intensity of the elements on the board are the features that determine who gets how hot and how wet in the coming week or so. So the forecast as mentioned in the rainfall forecasts and video, it is a low confidence forecast. For now we have a cold front passing through southeast states during Friday with showers with light falls mainly. Showers and thunderstorms will continue off and on for much of this outlook for northeast NSW and parts of inland QLD. Severe thunderstorms are possible for SE QLD early next week with all modes of severe weather. Next week we watch a sharp upper trough moving through WA and that will bring more of a temperature drop than rainfall. It will help to hook into moisture over the tropics and drag it south and southeastwards towards SA and then the southeast states later next week. Ahead of it, warm to hot for much of southern and eastern Australia before a thundery change works it's way through. How wet that system is, remains to be seen. The weather over the north becoming quite unsettled with a larger scale storm outbreak for the NT and into parts of WA during the course of the next week with above average rainfall, bringing down the horrendous high heat.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

Not a lot of change from this morning, but the moisture is now becoming very deep through the outlook period through northern and eastern Australia, with numerous to extensive showers and thunderstorms over much of the NT extending through to QLD and west into WA. This moisture field will remain there until the ridging over the southeast breaks down and you will note that moisture begins to surge south and southeast next week lifting the rainfall chances for the dry southeast and eastern inland. The west seeing relatively seasonal values and the moisture remaining trapped over QLD and northern NSW with a trough meandering west and then east. The moisture over northern Australia is well above average for this time of year and it will visit the southern states into November.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Blotchy rainfall throughout the nation indicates convective rainfall. The western coast looks dry but most areas of the nation should have a shower or thunderstorm risk during the coming 10 days.

A closer look in

Top End - going to get noisy!

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to the video for more - the ensemble data is way more useful - more on that tonight.

CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to the video for more

More details on the rainfall coming up at 9pm EDT and tomorrow is the Harvest Update for the coming 6 weeks which looks more into November.



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