NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE NORTH INCREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL LOW NEXT WEEK

The south continues to be dry and settled so not ignoring you, just no change to the forecast and if you live in this region, this is normal for this time of year.


Up north where the moisture and instability is a lot deeper, we will see widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing. We have started to see clusters of showers and thunderstorms now occurring around the clock. That is representing the approach and passage of the MJO through to the north of the nation leading to enhanced late season rainfall.


Out of this enhanced convection around the region, we could see a tropical low form within a trough during the weekend if not next week which needs to be watched with the risk of severe weather associated with this feature quite high still despite the poor modelling.


Rainfall from this system could be quite high impact for the end of the wet season and these late season lows can pack a punch.


Lets take a look at the latest.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall and humidity is expected to be running well above normal for this time of year with the passage of the MJO through northern Australia. The showers and thunderstorms over northern areas will remain above average and potentially heavy if we see a developing tropical system in the next week closer to the coast. The confidence on that is quite low at the moment. Overall the rainfall should be contained to the Top End with a few scattered falls down to about Renner Springs and dry further south to the SA border. The rainfall may begin to increase once again over western districts later next week with another pulse of moisture moving through the interior of WA but that could start to be experienced just outside of this period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop further south through the NT on Thursday but the storms over the south likely to be high based without much measurable rainfall. Further north during the afternoon and evening, storms will return with gusty winds possible with storms north of Elliot during the evening. Some of the storms could pose damaging winds risk for areas north of Katherine.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds may occur once again during the late afternoon and evening with storms racing west across the Top End.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

We are still seeing the model madness from run to run and between weather agencies and this will make backing the right horse, hard to do. There are many people out there backing a model to bring them comfort, but the weather does not care about your intuition or what model has the best track record. These periods are low confidence for a reason and we have to look to the broader data sets and the observed weather to get a sense of where the weather is trending to be most active. At this time, the guidance on the modelling is suggesting the weather in the west is looking more unsettled over the weekend with severe weather potential from thunderstorms developing or with the passage of the remains of Charlotte and then a fairly moist and unstable airmass sitting over the western interior through next week. Over the eastern seaboard and into the GDR, the weather looking very wet with flooding become more of a concern as we move through the weekend and into next week with the positive SAM phase playing out over the days ahead. Over northern Australia, watching the evolution of the next tropical depression. This sits in one of the hardest areas to forecast tropical weather and will be very hard to pin down, but the rainfall and severe weather risks are increasing from run to run across most weather agencies. Over the south and southeast Australia extending back into the Central portions of Australia, the weather is forecast to remain dry and settled for about a week.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture profile continues to remain unchanged essentially from run to run, but what is changing in association with the moisture is the placement of low pressure which is what will drive rainfall. For now the driest weather near the upper and surface ridge over the central parts of the nation and extending through southeast areas and adjacent inland regions of NSW and into QLD. The wettest and more humid weather, in the west, western interior, through the northern tropics and over the east coast and coastal escarpment through to the dividing range with onshore winds via the positive SAM. We could see the weather shift during later next week as the high controlling the weather over SA moving into the east and then southeast of the nation. That may promote a deeper moist northeast flow lifting above average rainfall chances once again for NSW and QLD.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - watching that tropical system over the weekend and next week, with poor modelling, things can escalate quickly, but conversely fizzle out as fast. So watch closely.

More coming up from 9pm EDT with a look at the models and rainfall, I will only share information that is in reasonable agreement as too much is too confusing and I only want to share what is plausible at this time, so stay tuned for that.

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