No change to the guidance as we track a trough and low pressure system over southern areas of the NT with a chance one or two areas picking up a couple of months worth of rain in a sitting. Deeper moisture being drawn from the tropics southwards into the centre of the nation leading to widespread shower and productive thunderstorm activity.
For the northern areas and now stretching down into the Katherine, Roper and Barkly regions, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be about most afternoons next week as a trough develops.
Some of these storms could gusty at times.
Lets take a look at the week ahead.
Rainfall next 10 days
Rainfall is becoming more widespread for the NT, and clearly the wettest period since last wet season. An active trough is developing over southern districts leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms, and as mentioned earlier, some areas could get one to two months worth of rainfall over the course of this week. For the remainder of the NT, afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected, with morning showers for coastal areas of the Top End. Falls more widespread over the south with the trough and more random and scattered over northern districts as most would know, rainfall forecasts are quite useless in random airmass thunderstorm events, but rain will be about.
The rain is the most extensive across the region since last wet season.
Thunderstorm Forecast Friday
Thunderstorms are expected to fire once again over the north but in random and scattered pockets. No defined boundary to note other than the seabreeze front moving inland from coastal areas the main source of activity. Some thunderstorm activity over the Barkly regions with a developing trough are expected to be mainly elevated at this time.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The pressure pattern still supports fairly settled weather for the end of the working week nationwide, very quiet weather-wise. From Saturday the weather turns over inland NT and through northern SA as a front and pressure trough taps into deep moisture to produce widespread cloud and patchy rainfall. There will be the chance of storms through parts of the NT spreading into northern SA and western NSW and QLD. The southeast will also see showers with the front passing through but light falls. There is a very low chance of thunderstorms with thick cloud cover stamping out the storm risk, that moves east through Sunday. Now Monday rain is ongoing over QLD and NSW back through the NT and a strong cold front passing over the SWLD will bring showers and gusty colder conditions to the region. That front then races across, helps to push out the first system, but itself will bring the next batch of showers and storms for SA, VIC and NSW. This may also bring severe weather to some locations in the southeast. Over the north, the coverage of rainfall and unsettled weather in a hot soupy airmass is anticipated to ramp up as the upper high weakens. And finally, mostly below average temperatures for much of next week over the SWLD with onshore southwesters.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days
As pointed out in the video, the timing of the moisture in relation to weather systems moving out of the west of the the nation will determine the rainfall distribution. We have tracked a myriad of solutions this week but now starting to see the models settle on the front capturing the trough and dragging it all through together over the weekend and Monday. Then you can see the next system developing next week from the west which then brings another batch of showers and storms as it hits a deeper moisture supply over the east of the nation. Note the moisture hanging on over the northern parts of the nation as the seasonal shift continues and how that moisture then impacts rainfall chances into the nations south and east. The west of the nation will see showery weather over the SWLD but away from there the weather is dry over the west of the nation with limited moisture under high pressure ridging in.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Rainfall accumulation continues to remain low confidence with the bias still expected to remain in place over eastern and northern parts of the nation which is no surprise if you have been here a while. Some areas of QLD and NSW could see 1/2 to 1 months worth of rainfall and isolated falls in the outback netting 2 months rainfall during this period. Over SA the rainfall is very conditional and based upon where the low pressure troughs peak and how much moisture they draw in over the state before raining themselves more efficiently over the east. The tropics are active and expected to spread further west into the Kimberly and the Cape York region at the end of the period. After the front in the SWLD early next week, the rainfall chances decrease with persistent ridging at this stage.
A closer look in
The southern areas perhaps not as wet but that would be above average rainfall still.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Refer to video for more details.
I will have a look at the full model data and all things rainfall after 9pm tonight so come back for that as many are relying on this information at the moment.