NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS EASING OVER THE SOUTH - BUILD UP STRENGTHENS UP NORTH.

Boy it is hot today over the Top End with high humidity values and away from the coast, temperatures into the 40s! Some scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon in this airmass north of Elliot.


Down the Stuart Highway into the Simpson District and out to the QLD border, showers and storms are continuing to move east, thanks to a trough and upper low moving on by. A dry airmass is starting to move in, in combination with high pressure so weather is improving for Tuesday and into mid week, ahead of cooler weather over the latter part of this week.


Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall is easing over the southeast areas of the NT overnight with a trough moving east. Some of the falls could be locally heavy with thunderstorms initially this evening. The weather north from Ti Tree up to Tennant Creek still unsettled overnight and through Tuesday before drier air arrives. So a few falls over 10mm possible there. Up north, most areas should see 20mm this week, some a lot more than that with thunderstorms floating about.

A broader view of the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast

The usual afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, mainly between 2-10pm with the peak of the daytime heating process. The weather south of Katherine is more unstable aloft, thunderstorms could develop at anytime in the coming 24hrs before the trough moves east.

DATA


Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

A low pressure trough and two upper lows are traversing the east making rainfall forecasting very tricky at the moment through the eastern inland with strong storms now flaring in areas where there was no risk. This is pattern is expected to continue overnight and into Tuesday. A strong cold front passed through the SWLD of WA today with significant cold air surging north and a fairly robust area of showers throughout the region. That front will race through to be near the EP of SA tomorrow afternoon and then the trough will be over the southeast of the nation Wednesday. It will run into a deeper moisture profile left over by the lead system through NSW and QLD currently and see showers and storms increase once again. Severe thunderstorms are possible. The west will dry out for the remainder of the week into the weekend with above average temperatures while the east will be cold and showery over southeast SA and VIC thanks to a low near Tasmania. That low may cause severe weather over Tasmania as well. Storms on the trough over NSW and QLD on Friday will lift off the east coast during the weekend. Over the tropics the weather is seasonal with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the day time heating process. Next week keeping an eye on a strong trough/front approaching the west of the nation which may bring a burst of heavy rainfall and strong winds and cooler weather, while the east turns quite warm to hot and settled under high pressure. The east coast however, thanks to that high, may sit under a moist unstable showery easterly airstream. There is lots on the board for the next 7-10 days.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Moisture profile is largely unchanged from this morning, the issue is pinning down systems in the 5-10 range. This time yesterday the Euro had a deep low sitting over southeast Australia, tonight it is hot and dry with a northwest flow with moisture to the north. Safe to say we take it one system at a time over the nation. For now the next system on the board to watch is the rain and thunderstorm event over the southern and southeast of the nation mid to late week with a high chance of heavy rainfall for VIC and TAS and moderate falls into NSW. The moisture profile not especially excessive but the unstable air will lift the moisture to full potential. The northern and northeast of the nation remaining humid and unsettled with the dry air from the strong system in the southeast failing to get up into the tropics now. The seasonal shift has evolved now beyond this occurring. Finally the last system to watch is the large scale moisture in feed from the Indian Ocean through WA into a strong front which could bring above average rainfall out west.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Rainfall confidence remains low as per the commentary above and will likely shift around in the medium term. Rainfall tonight over QLD and northern NSW could be heavy in spots. With severe storms north of Boulia, there have been reports of 20-35mm with those seeing 2 months worth of rain in a sitting. We are moving into that time of year now. Some of the rainfall for SA, VIC and southern NSW could be moderate to heavy with the next feature on the board mid to late week. The falls with the second system more isolated for northern NSW and into southern QLD as the trough passes through. The north sees scattered falls with the afternoon downpours about. The third system to watch is the one out west which could bring above average rainfall to WA.

A closer look at the NT. The northwest Top End coming alive, going to be a few noisy days in Darwin.

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more information.

I will have more on the rainfall chances and models tonight after 9pm EDT and a look at the climate drivers and a harvest update tomorrow.

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