NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTRACTING NORTH.

After the record rainfall, we have dry air and clear sunny skies for the southern NT, the flood waters starting to recede after a very wet spell.


The trough responsible, is moving through the Roper and into the northern Barkly, and showers and storms continue there tonight and tomorrow.


Over the Top End the weather is seasonal, though an increase in thunderstorm activity is expected during Saturday with heavy falls developing before conditions ease again into early next week.


The south, no rainfall for about 7 days though we may introduce showers and thunderstorms back into the forecast for next weekend as moisture and instability increase.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has cleared out of the south and central districts with drier air moving north. The trough responsible for the wild weather is now sitting over the central areas and is slowing down on it's journey north. Heavy falls are still possible along this feature but the rainfall likely to retreat into the Top End this weekend and next week

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms are ongoing tonight and again tomorrow with strong to severe storms likely to emerge again with a chance of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and damaging winds. This risk will move further north into Saturday.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

The flash flood risk continues tomorrow for the Roper and Gulf Country through to eastern and central QLD as the trough moves north. There may be some flash flooding with heavier thunderstorms over the Top End in advance of the trough.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging wind gusts with the strongest storms on and ahead of the trough is possible once again on Friday. Winds over 100km/h possible with organised clusters of thunderstorms.

DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.


00z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Again focus shifts to the next round of weather after the dry cooler spell across much of the nation, the question will be, do we have repeat systems coming through the nation from a week's time?

00z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The drier air is sweeping out the tropical moisture in the coming 36hrs with conditions turning much more settled across much of the inland, but note in the medium term, the moisture cycle starts again, and continues to build up throughout the back half of the month, for those that don't want rain, this is not what you want to see.

00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video

A closer look in - thunderstorms turning heavier over the northern Top End from later this week through early next week.

More details tonight from 9pm looking at the next batch of rainfall and humidity coming down the pipe for the end of the month.

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