NT - SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS WEEK FOR MUCH OF THE TERRITORY. EYES ON THE ARAFURA SEA!

The typical showers and thunderstorms continue to engulf a lot of the NT on Monday evening and will be the case on Tuesday as the moisture left behind from Tiffany remains in place. Troughs over interior parts will be the focus of the heaviest of the rainfall as well as the remnant circulation over southern areas.


For the north, we are watching the development of a low in the forecast period north of the Top End. Models are diverging on where to place this low and how big it gets etc. But it is in the short term forecast window and in this part of the world, tropical features can blow up very quickly.


So lets take a look at that.

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be seasonal across much of the north in line with expectations for January. However the placement of a tropical low will determine the overall coverage of heavy falls for the Top End. The system comes close to the Top End and runs over land to the southwest of the NT, then very wet weather is expected for the north. If the system decides to head southwest into the Indian Ocean, then it could be possible to see a return to dry weather for a lot of the Top End. So that is something to watch. For southern areas, very wet tonight and tomorrow before drying out a tad, but high levels of moisture left over will keep the showers and storms going but the coverage more scattered than previous days.

A broader look at the NT looking at the rainfall including tonight through southern areas and for the coming 10 days.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms, widespread across the NT with some clearance expected over the southwest and far south during the day. Thunderstorms carry a moderate to high chance of flash flooding over much of the southern and central interior as well as parts of the Top End. Nothing unusual for the tropics.

Tropical Depression Watch - January 20th-27th 2022

Tropical depression may form as early as Thursday up over northern parts of the Arafura Sea and track southwards. The upper level winds and SSTs are favourable for development into a cyclone, but it needs to stay over water and avoid the island chains north of the nation. One way or the other, enhanced rainfall later this week over northern Australia is likely with a developing low off the Kimberly Coast by the weekend. The Euro tonight has the system further southwest off the Broome Coast and the CMC has it over near Kunnunurra. The GFS has it coming through Darwin.

DATA - More on the data in the video at the top of the page.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video for more guidance, there are changes in the modelling expected in the coming days, but this gives you the very latest breakdown in daily analysis for the short and medium term, but I do stress it will change.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The most moisture I have seen cover the nation in about a decade at this time of year means that some areas regardless of modelling, will be clobbered!

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video and coming up this evening in the modelling and rainfall analysis after 9pm EDT.

A closer look in - some really high values being presented here in the short and medium term! It will change but some areas could cop a hiding to round out January.

A broader view of the NT

More weather coming up later this evening looking at all the modelling and rainfall information again, seeing how the SA trough performs across the data sets and the tropical system over northern Australia with impacts into the medium term.




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