The weather seasonal for the south with warm temperatures, likely being above average for this time of year, but it is not unusual for the region to be placed in a warm dry airmass. The region unlikely to see rainfall for now but the confidence is quite low at the moment, that due to the models diverge on how they manage the spread of rainfall throughout the country.

Across the north, more of the same. Strong to severe storms to continue most days and these could increase in coverage with the approach of the MJO this week. So more high humidity and no sign of the early dry season vibes just yet.

Now the wild card over the coming 1-2 weeks will be the coverage of the monsoonal weather north of the nation, do we see a few more tropical lows form in the Arafura and or Timor Seas? That would enhance rainfall and potential for severe weather.

Communities through Maningrida through to Umbakumba on Groote Eylandt need to pay attention to forecasts through the coming week as there may be something spin up there this weekend.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be scattered to widespread over the northern Top End during the next few days, with drier air being ingested into areas south of Katherine, with no rainfall over the coming days. This thanks to the tropical cyclone that has formed in the Indian Ocean. But as the MJO moves closer and rotates around through the north of the nation, we will see rainfall increasing in the next week. Storms and showers increasing in coverage and possibly areas of rainfall developing over the North Coast and extending over the east later in the outlook. The forecast confidence is rather low at the moment with the MJO moving through.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms will be restricted to the northern Top End with the risk of damaging winds moderate through the afternoon and evening, especially running along the sea breeze front moving inland during the afternoon and evening.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds could feature with thunderstorms over the northern Top End during the afternoon and evening and spreading into WA during the night.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The GFS true to form indicates the weather turning volatile over vast areas of the nation but then is the one to pull back while other models now support the weather to volatile over western, northern and eastern areas. It is a common dance that I have seen in my 25 years of doing this. So at the moment, using the GFS, it carries a lower confidence that the other models which are more realistic of the impacts of the troughs over the east in line with the positive SAM phase (which is stronger than the previous event) so rainfall could be heavy at times over the east of the nation, more than what is being shown here. The weather in the west, is dictated by where Charlotte ends up travelling too, at this time, it does appear it is heading towards the Central West or Gascoyne. Now timing is the issue, we could have thunderstorms increasing in coverage from later this week into the weekend, but the GFS below suggests it could be slower on the approach and weaken the system offshore before moving it ashore with a trough and front. An upper level system still appears on other modelling for the eastern inland, but not on the GFS so that system while absent from the charts in the short term still carries a risk of evolving from the weekend with severe weather potential for the eastern inland. All of this weather bypassing SA and VIC where conditions should remain dry. Finally, the GFS still playing with an idea of a tropical low forming northeast of the Top End (other models have had this solution, the model dance continues) and this could produce heavier rainfall for the Top End and Cape York.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture remains unchanged from this morning. Moisture is forecast to sweep through the nation via the jet stream with a port of moisture running through the upper and low levels of the atmosphere leading to a band of rainfall spreading through the country, patchier this week over parts of SA but may increase through the eastern inland with another trough there. There may be another invigoration of the rain band over in the west with the moisture deepening as the tropical low approaches the west coast. Across the north, more of the same with deeper moisture and widespread showers and thunderstorms continuing as the MJO moves through. Drier air at the surface will likely be trapped under the ridge with little rainfall potential in this region for now.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - very low confidence in terms of rainfall beyond 5 days! Be aware of that.

More coming up from 8am EDT. There is little use of doing the models and rainfall wrap tonight looking at the spread. So will review that again tomorrow and update that element if required. 6 Week Outlook also due out tomorrow too.

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