Record rainfall continues for the south with flooding through Alice Springs and surrounds with 50-150mm of rainfall in past 24 hours. As expected that weather is peaking through today before pushing off to QLD and NSW with a deepening trough and low in the coming days.

The weather will begin to dry out as a southerly flow develops from the west later tomorrow and Friday is much drier for much of the NT. The north, ahead of the dry line could become quite unsettled with severe storms flaring but a better coverage of rainfall for the very soupy north.

The weather remains fairly benign and seasonal for much of the period, despite the below average temperatures over the south but there will be an increase of moisture once again from the north and west as the flow shifts into the east and troughs deepen around the nation.

Lets take a look

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall has been at record values over southern and western areas of the NT as expected and that focus is now shifting onto the east as a drier southerly flow clears out the soupy air from the interior. The northern parts of the NT will still remain under seasonal humidity values with the showers and thunderstorms continuing, some of those could pack a punch later this week into the weekend. Then the humidity will return from mid next week and NT wide showers and thunderstorms may return to the forecast as we reset for the next prolonged period of wet and humid weather.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will continue tonight and into tomorrow with severe thunderstorms present in the flood warned areas at the moment. Further rainfall on top of record values are expected tonight. The focus shifts east through the day on Thursday with a drier southerly moving through. Some of the storms severe along that boundary with heavy rainfall and damaging winds the main concern. The hail risk stays over in the SA and NSW side of the border.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

We have seen flash and riverine flooding already in the past 2 days and this continues tonight and once again on Thursday with the risk contracting east as we get drier air pulled into the region.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Same situation with damaging winds, the risk for the NT contracts into NSW and QLD later in the day as a dry airmass begins to move through the central parts of the nation.

DATA - Analysis can be found in the video at the top.

GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in - there are two events beyond this current system and so therefore your number may be eclipsed in the first system alone with thunderstorms. The wet pattern continues.

More details on all things rainfall and models coming up after 9pm EDT

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