NT - SEASONAL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE NT.

And no change from the guidance from Friday which means the set pressure pattern and weather outlook continues. The showers and thunderstorms over the northern parts of the NT will continue with gusty winds, possibly severe, most afternoon and evenings.


For the southern areas, mainly south of about Elliot to Renner Springs, the weather mainly dry, warm to hot but within seasonal values for this week but over the weekend, conditions could become hot to very hot as the flow turns northwest to westerly.


The feature to watch over the course of the next week is the MJO approaching the west of the nation. Now we are seeing a few waves of tropical weather moving east to west which are increasing the showers and storms from time to time.


There is some chance we could see thunderstorm clusters become more orgnanised offshore the coast north and west of the NT and small scale tropical lows may form in the next 10 days, which could enhance rainfall and the cyclone chances moving into later this month into early April which is very normal in a waning La Nina.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is non existent for southern areas so lets focus on the areas where it is likely to rain which is north of Renner Springs. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing through the area between Renner Springs to Larrimah, tending scattered north of Katherine and numerous near and north of Adelaide River to Darwin. Storms mainly afternoon and evening and damaging winds most likely over the northwest Daly and Gregory Districts through the coming 5 days. Tropical waves passing through the north of the NT could see thunderstorms turn to areas of rain at times with moderate to heavy falls. The weather not changing a whole lot through the weekend but we could see more dynamic weather unfold over tropical areas if a tropical low develops in response to the approaching MJO.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms have been following the same script daily over the past week and that continues tonight and into Tuesday. Thunderstorms developing mainly during the afternoon and evening with damaging winds a feature in the late afternoon and evening as the storms become organised into squalls. Moderate to heavy rainfall also possible.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds a moderate to high chance over areas north of Adelaide River out to Jabiru and up to the Tiwi Islands. The risk is in line with the trough sitting at the base of the Top End and the waves of tropical weather moving in from the east to west.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information on the daily breakdown in the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The confidence in the forecast is quite low as outlined in the video. Understand that the volatility in the SAM and the MJO being a little slower in recent updates means that moisture spreading throughout the nation could be out of phase with the frontal weather passing south of the country. But the GFS is on it's own in the short term when it comes to passing moisture later this weekend throughout the nation with a cloud band producing patchy falls throughout SA, VIC, NSW and QLD. So understand that this will change. Tropics look active and the weather over the FNQ region looks to be very wet near the persistent trade winds.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture distribution continues to be quite volatile from run to run, so there is difficulty in placing the moisture beyond the severe thunderstorm outbreak over the south and east of the country. So this will continue to impact the rainfall distribution as we move through the coming few days and so expect changes for southern and eastern parts of the nation. Over the tropics, you will find the significant moisture continue to kick off storms most days, with the heaviest moisture reserved for FNQ. Moisture does build offshore WA in the medium term but does that connect with the long wave trough building in the Southern Indian Ocean and bring in a large cloud band towards the end of the month? That remains to be seen.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - the weather over the region is highly conditional upon the MJO moving over the north of the nation with heavier rainfall in the medium term.

The rain through the interior is linked to moisture being drawn southeast from the Indian Ocean which remains to be seen.

More details coming up looking at the models and all things rainfall from after 9pm EDT - we will see what the data sets are looking like for the medium and longer term and whether there is more rumbling about the Autumn Break that has been lurking on the charts.



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