NT - SEARING DRY HEAT FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT THE HUMIDITY WILL RETURN

A very anomalous period of weather is underway with a dry surge of air making it all the way through the nation and onwards to Timor Leste, a highly unusual event for November. That will lead to a period of hot dry weather, with above average temperatures but they will moderate over northern areas.


For the south the weather is still expected to be dry, mostly sunny with below average temperatures.


In between the temperature zones, is a windy region for central districts. Areas of raised dust is possible in areas that escaped the heavy rainfall.


The weather turns more seasonal from later this week with the return of showers and thunderstorms over northern areas and this will begin to creep south and west through the NT as troughs redevelop for inland areas of the nation.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall for Next 10 Days

Rainfall is anticipated to be non existent in the coming 3 days or so before the weather turns unsettled again with periods of showers and thunderstorms developing. The showers and storms starting out over the northern areas with uneven distribution of rainfall and then that focus will begin to shift further south as we track more seasonal weather. The rainfall could turn heavy this weekend with a deeper moisture profile returning.

A broader look at the region - again numbers will pick up this week into the weekend as moisture returns and storms will pack a punch up north.

DATA - Refer to video for more details


00Z Euro - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution -Next 10 Days

The pressure pattern begins to relax from Monday with the high over WA moving towards the east and we finally see the weather turn more stable over the southeast and east with easing showers and winds. Temperatures will remain below average for the first half of this week but the weather out west will be opposite. Warm to start but then tending cooler. The tropics hot and dry, could be some records once again (which plays well into the nation again turning more unstable into the medium term). A trough develops over the interior of WA with that system moving into the east during mid week, and finds better moisture rotating around a high, thanks to easterly winds developing. This trough will deepen over the latter part of this week, but part will pass through the southeast on Friday, another part will hang back over WA and SA through the weekend. It is tricky to pin down which feature will bring more rainfall. The GFS shows more rainfall in the second feature where the Euro has better falls on both systems for eastern WA, SA, VIC and NSW. The Euro below is much wetter and I am not quite drawing these totals yet but it is something to watch. Regardless the nation turns more unsettled and humid as advised last week, from around the 19-20th of November and persist to the end of the month. Also the Euro does not quite have the tropical weather offshore northern Australia like the GFS and CMC so again that feature may be something to watch as well this week.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

The drier airmass over the nation will continue to dominate through mid week, but notice the moisture returns over WA and again over northern and eastern Australia. The weather will turn more humid as we go through the latter part of the week and that is thanks to an injection of moisture passing from the Indian Ocean into the western and central interior. The east will see easterly winds pump moisture into the eastern inland and the tropics also getting more active. Overall the nation is turning more humid and building up to levels we saw in the past 10 days. So again we have a small window of drier air and less rainfall, but it is not lasting long.

00Z Euro - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days

The PW values are below average. The moisture values will remain low as we track through the coming 3-4 days but the moisture values flip rapidly and by next weekend, we will be back to many areas in seasonal conditions but a tropical feeling with more rain and thunderstorms impacting large parts of southern and eastern Australia and the tropics. These moisture values will continue to increase over the back half of the month.

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details on short and medium term rainfall

A closer look in - this forecast will change rapidly this week - so stay up to date.

More details coming up after 9pm tonight on all things models and the rainfall potential.

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