The weather is turning humid and unsettled NT wide through the coming 10 days. The majority of wet weather in the short term is expected over northern areas this weekend and early next week but that humidity will begin to move south throughout this outlook period.
As it does, unseasonal rainfall chances begin to move further south, with the potential for heavy early wet season rainfall moving down the Stuart Highway.
Lets take a look
Rainfall next 10 days
The rainfall uneven in distribution as explained in the video, that is the theme for the NT and if you have lived there (like I had for many years) you know the drill. The interesting aspect of the rainfall is that is moving southwards and is above average during the period and this area could be the wettest part of the nation. Some areas could see 1-3 months worth of rainfall from thunderstorms during this time.
A broader look at the NT
Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday
Scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly north of Elliot with some strong and gusty winds possible. Some thunderstorms may also produce localised pockets of flash flooding inland of Darwin and running through Arnhem Land into the Roper McCarthur. Thunderstorms, not all, mainly between 2-10pm.
DATA - Refer to video for more analysis
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The model guidance as pointed at multiple times today is still low confidence for the nation's east and southeast with poor guidance continuing throughout the model spread. Though that said the confidence of higher impact severe weather remains over southeast QLD and northeast NSW and the wettest weather is likely to be over the tropics. For the west of the nation a cooler change moves through with showers and another run of below average temperatures. For SA, VIC and inland NSW, the weather remaining mostly dry for now with above average temperatures returning.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
PW anomalies shows the tropics remaining the focus for rainfall during this period.. Dry air will be trapped over the eastern inland of the nation which will keep skies dry for now with troughs passing through in dry fashion from SA through NSW and VIC. The east coast will see showers from time to time with thunderstorms as troughs lifts the moisture that is on the northern edge of the upper high and ridge, that guidance seems fair at this point, but other models are pushing that ridge off quicker, some keep it in place, which then changes the forecast run to run for NSW, VIC and SA. The west will see cooler drier southwest to southerly winds next week, though moisture from the north and northeast will be transported southwest during the outlook bringing back rainfall chances to the interior. There could be above average rainfall with the trough amplifying through the Bight mid next week.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
The Euro is still printing out more convective rainfall for much of the nation, which is why you are seeing a patchwork of rainfall rather those sweeping bands which are to the south of the nation with frontal weather and monsoonal weather to the north of Australia. So no major trigger for widespread concentrated rainfall at this stage. Repeating that this is typical for this time of year as the nation warms and we say goodbye to the westerly wind regime to the south and welcome the tropical easterly winds over northern and eastern Australia and inland troughs. For now your rainfall will vary over much of the nation from place to place and it will chop and change from run to run as there is little skill in forecasting exactly what you get ahead of time in random warm airmass thunderstorm activity. We have seen that in the GFS today and the Euro tonight.
This is well above average rainfall for this time of year.
GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days
Refer to video for more details
CFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 Weeks
Refer to harvest outlook for more details
As mentioned I will be having my first morning off in 4 months tomorrow so the next update will be tomorrow afternoon. Have a great Friday night.