It has been fairly active of late across the Top End with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evenings, but that activity is now forecast to wind down, in complete opposite direction to where it was heading late last week, the tropical system that was forecast to deepen is now unlikely to impact the region.

In fact by the weekend we could see the drier air that is entrenched over the southern parts of the NT spreading northwards with a southerly flow which will kick the trough northwards into the Top End and may even kick the trough north of the NT by early next week leading to a clean out of the high humidity and rainfall chances.

For southern and central areas, conditions are forecast to remain dry and hot with above average temperatures forecast.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to return to uneven distribution with the scattered showers and thunderstorms also thinning out in coverage across the Top End. The weather likely remaining dry and settled over the remainder of the NT south of Elliot for the week. But through the weekend, a nice pulse of drier and more stable air will work northwards with a southeasterly surge that will be helped along by a strong high over the southeast of the nation. This will give the first hints of the dry season to many areas over the sub tropical and tropical portions of the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Thunderstorms are forecast to develop from late morning and peak in coverage during the afternoon and evening with some of the storms strong to severe with damaging winds a possibility but the risk is currently low.

Damaging Winds Risk Tuesday

Damaging winds are a low chance with the larger clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the northern parts of the NT.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

More details can be found in the video but we are moving into a quieter period of weather following severe weather in the east and the slow easing of the widespread storm activity over the west. This period of about 2-3 weeks will be a period of transition and should be expected for many of our Ag Areas as we move through to the cooler season. The weather over the northern tropics is expected to be thinning out too.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

You can see the limited moisture over much of the nation through this period away from the west coast and over the east and up over the north. But as we move through the period, you can see that seasonal shift starting to take shape, the first real long period of dry weather and low rainfall totals for the nation as a whole in about 9 months.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

A closer look in - rainfall spread is limited in the coming week but we could see increased falls if a tropical low over Cape York moves west, north of the NT bringing more moisture. Rainfall free for the central and southern areas.

More coming up from 8am EDT. I will return to the rainfall and model posts from mid week once we get the severe weather event off the board.

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