The coverage of thunderstorm and shower activity is remaining fairly seasonal, but the higher moisture content is expected to give way to heavy rainfall developing with thunderstorms over the Top End during the next few days. Some locations could see over 60mm of rainfall from storms.
The weather may wane a bit over the north and increase again next week with the regular rainfall returning to the north.
For the southern and central areas, more scattered thunderstorms possible with heavy falls for the far southeast and east with a deepening trough forming over SA. Some of those storms could be strong to severe on Wednesday before that contracts east Thursday.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
The hit and miss showers and thunderstorms continue for the north with locally heavy falls next to locations that get nothing. That is how it rolls in the NT this time year. The coverage of thunderstorms means that most places should at least record one direct hit over the next 3-4 days.
A broader look at the NT shows that the air will dry out over the southwest from tomorrow and extend east by the end of the week sweeping the rainfall north by the weekend.
Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday
No change from yesterday with the scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms continuing.
A broader look at the NT and the stormy weather continues into Wednesday PM through Thursday morning with an enhanced.
Flash Flood Risk Wednesday
Flash flooding over parts of the southeast of the NT during the afternoon and evening with rainfall rates leading to outback flooding into SA.
Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday
Damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms over the Katherine region during the afternoon and evening.
DATA - You can find the GFS in the video for comparison.
12Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
The Euro is continuing with the wild weather for the next 3 days. What happens beyond then? So we have fine and hot weather for the west right into next week, the tropics are turning more active but routine weather anticipated and SA generally turns dry and warmer. The east is where the weather remains unsettled through the weekend and into next week with more rain and thunderstorms. Some of the other global models suggest another major rainfall event next week for VIC, NSW and QLD which could pose more flooding threats and really finish off harvest for many. That will be a feature of the update at 9pm.
12z Euro Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 Days
The values are elevated over large areas tonight but note the moisture does get pushed east, however the moisture hangs up over the eastern states and this is where rainfall and thunderstorm activity may remain in place right throughout the outlook period which may continue the flood threat. The tropics also very soupy with waves passing through with much better chance of more widespread rainfall. The west, under a decent period of dry air and hot weather, but the humidity could be drawn into the developing west coast trough next week leading to showers and thunderstorms developing.
12z Euro Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days
Refer to the update at 9pm for more details
Storms will drop heavy falls regardless of what is drawn in here, your number is a guide and not the absolute.
More coming up after 9pm EDT