NT - ROUTINE WEATHER CONTINUES WITH ALL EYES ON WHAT THE MJO DOES AS IT MOVES CLOSER NEXT WEEK.

The routine weather continues with no change to the forecasts across the NT in the coming 3-4 days at this time, so more of the same. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms for the Top End and dry weather continuing for areas south of Elliot.


The interest does develop next week with the development and movement of the MJO through to the Eastern Indian Ocean. Does that area of enhanced tropical weather move through the north of the nation or does it bypass to the north of the country? There is a risk we could see enhanced rainfall emerging for the Top End next week, but how far south that comes is determined by the speed and depth of the MJO event passing over the region.


Southern areas are expected to remain settled under dry air and ridging for now. We may see another wave of unsettled weather developing for inland areas around the Alice with moisture coming in during next weekend, but for now it is looking like a dry 7-10 days on the way.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be confined to northern areas during this period with the usual shower and thunderstorm activity working through the north of the NT. The storms could be heavy and gusty with some areas collecting 40-50mm in an hour, the usual routine of thunderstorms. So use this forecast as a guide for the period. The rainfall likely to increase in coverage next week and it may creep further south with scattered falls down to Larrimah and isolated falls down to Renner Springs but for now the south is dry.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Thunderstorms once again adopting the same pattern of impacting the same regions as they have been over the course of this week. So storms in these zones could be gusty once again, not everyone will get one, but they will be about mainly during the afternoon and evening. Overnight the storms will contract into WA.

Damaging Winds Risk Friday

Damaging winds also remain a moderate to high chance through the afternoon and evening, with the risk contracting westwards with the activity moving into WA along the strong outflow boundaries.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and the day to day spread of a national wrap of the weather. It puts into the context the weather to come in the short and medium term.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The latest synoptic shows troughing building over the eastern inland of the nation with the easterly wind regime, not as strong, but enough to feed moisture into these troughs to help trigger scattered falls for inland NSW and QLD. This may creep into the ACT and VIC on the holiday Monday. The east coast through this period looks showery, espeically for QLD and northern NSW. In the west we have another trough that will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow through Sunday before clearing into the east. The remains of that trough will likely merge with another trough over the Bight leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing from mid to late next week over portions of eastern SA and then increasing further over VIC, NSW and southern QLD. There is a chance we may see an ECL developing off the NSW coast in the medium term which I will acknowledge under these current circumstances is a moderate chance so will be watching closely. Otherwise the tropics will see increasing showers and thunderstorms with the chance of that moisture running southwards at some stage which could help to bring up rainfall chances into WA and SA which may see only light rainfall for now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The moisture content across the nation in the past few days has been reduced thanks to southerly winds, you will feel that during tomorrow morning with the coolest start since last October for many. Humidity will increase over in the west in the upper levels and help spawn showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon near a trough. The moisture in the east of QLD will be pulled west by easterly winds and rainfall chances will be coming up as the trough over inland QLD and NSW also moves west. Through the weekend and into next week, with the constant northeast flow as the high sits southeast of Australia, this area of instability will draw in more moisture and broaden the risk of rainfall. The moisture from WA will merge with the moisture over the east and as an upper system moves into this large mass of humidity, widespread rainfall and thunderstorms could emerge along with a severe weather risk. The tropics seeing deepening moisture levels as the MJO moves closer to Australia and rolls over northern states. We could see that moisture drawn south through the nation via the jet stream.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for further information

A closer look in - refer to the video for the fly around analysis across the country - this forecast will change given the MJO is in the region through later next week.

More information coming up from 8pm EDT looking at the models and all things rainfall and there is lots to unpack there with the potential for more widespread falls in the short and medium term. But can some be shared with areas that have missed out?

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