The storm activity over recent days is more of what you would see in the build up or build down, very lean totals across the NT as we take a break from the wet weather, the heat however, completely foul and excessive for many locations.

The southern districts are experiencing that high dry heat and that is forecast to continue as we move into the weekend, with a stubborn ridge nearby and favrouable upper winds preventing any major clean out of heat from the region.

Indications are at present pointing to an increase in the number of showers and thunderstorms across the northern third of the NT during Friday and this weather persisting through the weekend and then extending southwards towards the Alice by this time next week.

That means the dry heat currently in place will be replaced with a more humid airmass, and weak troughs will introduce the thunderstorms back to the forecast for many of us come a week from today.

Lets take a look.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

The scattered nature of the rainfall will continue for the next 5 days, though coverage of thunderstorm activty is increasing as we move through the weekend and into next week with a new trough expected to form at the base of the Top End. The moisture from the tropics will also be moving southwards next week, so the drier signal for the coming 10 days for central areas, may be beginning to reduce as we move towards a wetter and more humid phase over Christmas and New Years. We will also be watching the tropical wave offshore during the festive period for any chance of cyclone development.

A broader look shows the moisture is coming southwards during the outlook period.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are expected to follow the same routine today and be mainly located over the northern Top End but a few rogue high based storms cannot be ruled out south of the Top End. No severe weather is anticipated.

Thunderstorms will extend further south during the afternoon and evening, but will be mainly high based and little rainfall is expected from the thunderstorms.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern remains fairly wavy over the south and drier than normal over the northern and central parts for the coming few days before normal weather returns for the most locations. The welcome drier phase for most of the nation is anticipated to continue for another week generally, there will be pockets of thundery weather about with bursts of heavier rainfall, but widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated for the next week. It is in the medium term that the conditions shift, we see the tropics turn more active and the moisture increase from north and east, through to the south. The wild card clearly is the tropical lows over the east and northwest, and IF the pattern allows for this to occur, then my forecasting will turn very wet and the flood risks will return to large parts of the nation. I will be around during Christmas in the event of severe weather unfolding and major impacts for you all nationwide.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture presentation is unchanged from this morning for the short term, it is in the medium term that you will find the moisture tends deeper and more widespread and shifts southwards towards SA, NSW, VIC and the ACT. The warmer weather will turn more tropical and the rainfall chances will increase through the last week of the year on this current guide while remaining warm. The west coast of WA, dry for a while.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More details in the video blog.

A closer look in - showers and storms are increasing and there is a very good chance of an organised tropical wave developing into a low pressure system during the medium term, but WHERE and WHEN remains to be the question.

A broader look at the moisture creep southwards.

More details after 9pm on all things rainfall and modelling, it is now getting interesting in the medium term.

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