* There will be a systems reboot tonight which won't impact you reading the information here, but this will occupy my time tonight ahead of the App launch tomorrow - Details to come *
The heat is on over the nation, finally the west of the nation is sharing the heat with the rest of us and next week, expect temperatures to be baking over the interior, upwards of 40-45C for some locations over Central and Southern areas.
Over the north, with the MJO pulse in the Coral/Pacific Oceans, this will see the weather remain in build mode and so the higher heat values and pulse thunderstorm activity will feature. Some chance of storms turning more multicellular next week as the atmosphere becomes more unstable with the tropical weather over the Pacific moving further east.
Lets take a look
Rainfall Next 10 Days
Rainfall is expected to be near normal for the north through this period, with the usual pop up showers and thunderstorms to continue for the region, mainly north of Elliot. For the southern areas, the isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to clear east and contract north as drier and more stable pushes northwards by Friday. This will set the stage for a dry hot week next week.
The rainfall is beginning to lift north with very little expected for southern areas through the coming 10 days. Best to leave it dry for now.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms once again possible over a wide area during the afternoon and evening, some of these gusty and heavy. These will be moving west/northwest at about 30km/h.
The storm focus will begin to move further east during the coming days and clear the south from Friday.
Flash Flood Risk Thursday
Flash flooding a high risk with thunderstorms that form during the afternoon and evening over the Top End.
Damaging Winds Risk Thursday
Damaging winds are possible with thunderstorms from the Daly through the Roper into the Barkly and into QLD with stronger storms that form in the afternoon.
00Z GFS -Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
Significant rainfall is expected to unfold over the southeast of the nation during the course of the next 2-3 days with a deepening upper level low passing through NSW and deepening off the east coast. This will cause some flood risks down through the southeast of NSW and eastern VIC. The severe storm threat continues for the next 2 days over eastern NSW and QLD before the weather eases over the weekend. The heat is on next week with a significant pool of heat heading southeast and east from the northwest of the nation. So more summer like conditions expected for southern Australia. The north of the nation remains in routine weather leading to prolonged build up conditions. The west will turn cooler, which will be welcome after the heatwave this week. The cooler weather enhanced by a cold front developing next week for the SWLD. Watching that fast flow pattern in the medium term that will send a nasty heatwave across the nation and then the rain returns with a very deep moisture supply ahead of Christmas as you can see here and in the PW values below.
00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days
We see a nice tongue of drier air coming through the east and south of the nation from next week, the high humidity will be replaced with a decent period of drier and more stable air which will be welcome for many of you who have been swimming in recent weeks. The dry air also extends back to WA with cooler conditions in a fresh westerly wind regime through much of next week. The tropics is where you should find the persistent moisture during this time of year and that is where it will be from about early next week with the showers and storms thinning out even up there, thanks to high pressure aloft. But watch that moisture return and combine with the high heat, a very robust atmosphere is being progged on the medium term portion of the outlook, something that I will monitor in the days ahead.
00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More can be found in the video above.
A closer look in - the rainfall will increase from about the 17/18th of December over northern areas at this stage.
The rainfall returns to southern areas from about the 20th onwards.
More to come from 7am EDT.