Widespread showers and thunderstorms is back on the forecast for much of the Top End with a deepening humid airmass combining with a trough redeveloping over the Base of Top End.

A deeper tropical airmass with waves embedded in the flow will continue to drive showery outbreaks with storms increasing during this period.

The moisture is expected to sweep south through the NT during the coming week as the airflow turns broadly easterly. The wettest weather is expected over QLD but this may creep west into the NT by the middle or end of next week.

Moisture also pooling in a northwest winds aloft may introduce showers and thunderstorms back into the western and southern districts from next week as well.


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall accumulation is starting to increase in every run and the frequency of rainfall should return to daily levels over the northern areas with the frequency of rainfall also increasing over southern parts of the NT with moisture deepening near low pressure troughs. The remainder of the outlook is unsettled with scattered to numerous showers and storms NT wide.

The moisture will creep south and numbers will increase through southern areas

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms return finally, to break a dry and hot spell with increased chance of gusty winds and heavy rainfall developing with thunderstorms.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern is very dynamic - more details can be found in the video to cut down read time.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The humidity is deeper as we go through this period and will lead to widespread rainfall and thunderstorms. Flood risks increase this weekend and goes hand in hand with the moisture deepening over the northern and eastern parts of the nation

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The values consistently around the 30-50mm values indicates a prolonged period of above average rainfall and high humidity for the east. Southern and southeast areas may get a break but now we are seeing moisture surging into WA as well with above average rainfall chances.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more

A closer look in - the low confidence rainfall forecasts continue due to the complex and dynamic flow.

A broader look at the tropical mischief

More details on all things rainfall after 9pm EDT tonight. Stay weather aware.

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