A maritime airmass has been established across the Top End with stream showers and gusty storms with heavy falls in progress, thanks largely to the movement of Tiffany over the Kimberly. The rainfall forecasts have been woeful from modelling and agencies and will continue to be so as the models continue to play catch up.

Bottom line, showers and thunderstorms will continue for the Top End with heavy falls continuing. Thankfully the more widespread rainfall has moved out of the Top End, and as you can see, major flooding is already occurring from what had transpired on one day of heavy rainfall as opposed to 3-4. So very lucky through interior parts of the Top End.

The tropical low is expected to move further south through the weekend and into next week with more showers and thunderstorms for the north and more organised areas of rain for the south and southwest with the trough taking the remnant moisture into the SA and then the east

Another tropical depression may form in a week over the NT with heavy falls redeveloping for the Top End, the position of that low may also help bring in the monsoon trough over northern Australia proper.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains very much concentrated around the circulation of low pressure as it moves towards the south then southeast over central and eastern parts. The weather is expected to remain fairly wet over the northern coastal areas with the onshore flow producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the north. There is evidence that a developing monsoon trough over the north could give way to more robust showers and thunderstorms over the Top End with another low forming offshore. The position of that low could lead to some pretty heavy rainfall once again in about a week's time. Overall the remainder of the NT is looking very unsettled with deep moisture and multiple troughs on the board.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

A northwest flow will generate showers and thunderstorms for the Top End, some gusty but below severe thresholds. Thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding over parts over the western Top End and through the Gregory district.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Heavy rainfall associated with thunderstorms spiraling the weakening circulation of Tiffany will generate rainfall accumulation in quick time to produce flash flooding.

DATA - Refer to video for more guidance and the daily breakdown.

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More information can be found in the video but do understand the main point of this data, it is low confidence and will likely change again.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The one thing models do agree on is the moisture will be moved around all parts of the nation as we move through the outlook period and into the second half of this month setting up the very wet end to January and a wet February.

00Z ICON - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 8 Days

More information can be found in the video

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information can be found in the video

00Z Euro - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More information in the video

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

More information in the video

A closer look in

Another update tomorrow morning from 830am EDT. I am driving back from rural NT this evening so no more from me until the morning update. Have a great evening.

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