This system is gathering some interest on the modelling at the moment with a relatively modest chance of another late season cyclone forming off the Top End in about 3-5 days time.
It is not unusual for late season cyclones to run through the north during April and May bringing enhanced late season rainfall.
This system if it is named will adopt the name Darian.
Tropical Depression Watch
A depression is likely to form within the coming 2-3 days off the Arnhem Coast with a good chance of this system becoming more organised later in the weekend into next week. Significant convection has already been observed overnight with some moderate to heavy falls of rainfall with storms clipping the coastal areas of the northeast in recent days. The weather is expected to remain of routine values for most of the Top End while this system develops further in the Arafura Sea during the weekend and next week. Pay attention to forecasts and warnings this weekend and into next week as this evolves.
Tropical Cyclone Risk
The risk of a cyclone forming in this region is not overly high but it is appearing on some of the models now. But the Euro is clearly the most aggressive when it comes to dealing with this system and does verify it north of the Top End as a cyclone during the early to middle part of next week before spreading westwards.
Euro 12Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days
Noting the weak signals for a depression offshore the NT becoming more organised over the north of the NT next week and tracking west bound while increasing in strength. The weather could also lead to significant rainfall developing over northern areas of the nation and spreading southwest into the Kimberly. This would be TC Darian if it is named.
Euro 12Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days
Noting the path of the system will dictate the heavy rainfall spread and note the scale of the system is not as large as the Summer counterparts, these late season systems are small and more compact in nature so rainfall is very much contained to the centre of circulation.
Keep watch in the coming days.