No change to the overall synoptic pattern and upper level pattern with a broad upper high aloft bringing those hot and very humid conditions with temperatures well above the average continuing for this week.

The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase throughout the NT with a trough moving through southern areas, lifting the moisture and bringing up the chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout Wednesday and Thursday.

Storms may be severe with damaging winds.

The northern areas will see continued increase in showers and thunderstorms as the upper high moves a little to the east, opening the door for an uptick in the number of showers and thunderstorms for the northern districts. Some of the rainfall could be heavy at times.

Lets take a look

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue for areas north of a line from Lajamanu through Borroloola north with some of the rainfall totals inexcess of 50mm a day in some locations. The showers and thunderstorms while evading the coastal areas of the NT including Darwin, the chance of rainfall will continue regardless for the city and surrounds and this is typical of build up. The risk of rainfall will be highest mid to late week over the southern areas of the NT with the trough and return next week as moisture recycles southwards.

Rainfall for the larger NT looks above average as moisture streams southwards via upper level northwest winds.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to return for northern areas during Wednesday afternoon and evening with a reasonable chance of these thunderstorms persisting into the evening. A few showers and thunderstorms on the top of a trough passing over the southern areas will bring the chance of damaging winds for the southern border regions.

A broader look shows the thunderstorms progressing through the southern NT into the eastern states as moisture pushes through. Some of those storms could be gusty at times.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pressure pattern is turning active, more details can be found on GFS in the video but do note that the Euro and GFS are starting to converge on the idea that the nation is getting more unsettled and humid throughout the coming 10-14 days. So be prepared for higher humidity values moving forward and more prolonged periods of rain and thunderstorm activity.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The precipitable water values paint that picture of wetter as we go through the outlook period with the deep moisture likely to be lifted by multiple areas of low pressure passing through from west to east across the nation. Note the southwest sitting under persistent ridging leading to less rainfall and cooler weather than normal for this time of year.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Refer to video for more advice around the rainfall trends.

A closer look in

A broader view

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Refer to video for more

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 6 weeks

Refer to video for more

Further updates on the model madness and rainfall data after 9pm

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