The pattern remains unchanged in the absence of a strong trigger to increase the storm coverage over the NT so the high heat levels and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the weekend. We may see activity pick up next week with a easterly tropical wave passing through.
Over the south, the residual storm activity over the southeast will clear with thunderstorms expected to contract north through Thursday with drier air moving north.
Lets take a look
Rainfall for the next 10 Days
The rainfall is expected to remain fairly routine. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorms following the diurnal cycle over the northern districts is the theme for the next 5 days. Some of those storms can pack a punch but they are random and scattered and no one can tell you where they will form. But as we have seen in recent days, some locations could see 40-60mm in quick time. Otherwise the remainder of the NT is dry, though moisture may increase later in the period for southern areas with a trough on the approach from the east bringing back some chances of thunderstorms.
The seasonal rainfall continues for the NT however numbers should start to pick up for southern areas as we cross into December.
Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday
Thunderstorms are expected to return to the north during the afternoon and evening following the diurnal cycle. Small chance of gusty winds and heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding.
00Z GFS- Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days
As you saw in the video with the GFS - there is good agreement across the board for the west to remain hot and dry and SA, once the low moves into NSW, will also turn dry through next week. The east and north continuing to see tropical rainfall, the wettest weather through NSW and QLD with renewed flooding. The rain eases across the weekend, though some modelling wants to keep the trough in place and spit the low off the coast, but one way or the other the lower confidence in forecasting is quite challenging to forecast, given the very soupy airmass that is in place and unable to exit, the rainfall could continue for some time to come beyond this severe weather event. So we must be prepared for that in the east and northeast.
00z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16Days
Very deep moisture profile to persist for a number of days, some respite for SA and VIC and possibly western and southern NSW through the weekend but the moisture comes right back to the southern and southeast areas of the nation. The west remains dry and hot with an easterly flow and seasonal weather for the tropics.
00z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days
More on this coming up at 9pm EDT.
A closer look in - it is a very concerning rainfall forecast for the southeast and east.
More on rainfall and the latest model data coming up after 9pm EDT. The Euro data is lagging tonight FYI.