NT - MORE STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH RECORD RAINFALL CHANCES.

The rainfall out of some of these thunderstorm clusters have already begun to impact freight and logistic operations around the southern NT, this weather is expected to continue for the NT with further disruption likely to unfold.


Flash flooding has been observed along some of the major highways, the Stuart Highway was flooded yesterday and closed for a while.


The storms across the NT tomorrow could be rather heavy with gusty winds, especially over southern and central areas.


A new trough and low next week could also bring a severe outbreak of weather for southern and central districts with the chance of heavy rainfall returning.


Lets take a look


FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

The rainfall is largely unchanged from yesterday, the uneven distribution of rainfall will continue with the thunderstorm activity. Some communities have already recorded all their seasonal rainfall for Spring which is remarkable. Another 1-3 months worth of rainfall is possible for outback areas. For the north, the higher humidity will bring the showers and gusty thunderstorms during the afternoon and evenings about the Top End. Some of those posing a risk of heavy falls too.

A broader look at the rainfall across the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Saturday

Thunderstorms are expected for most of the NT, the most likely areas along the western border down to about Yulara and then over the Top End where gusty winds and heavy rainfall is possible. Storms will move east over the southern districts and into QLD and NSW later in the day.

A broader look at the unusual storm outbreak.

Flash Flood Risk Saturday

Flash flooding is a broad risk across the NT with some chance that larger thunderstorm clusters will produce flash flooding and disruption to communities and major highways throughout the southern portions of the territory.

Damaging Winds Saturday

Damaging winds once again a broad risk across the NT but the higher risk is over southern areas where the trough is rolling through during the afternoon and evening. Strong wind squalls over the Top End could produce damaging gusts about the Daly District.

DATA - Refer to video blog for more


GFS 00Z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

I will mention that the low pressure system coming out of WA through next week poses the biggest threat to farming and logistics/freight operations - this system is being poorly modelled at the moment and will be updated regularly here through the weekend.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Note the constant stream of moisture passing over the northwest of the nation and being fed into the jet stream and propelled into the southern and eastern inland with troughs and northern tips of frontal weather. These values are well above average.

GFS 00Z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 16 Days

The above average moisture values will dominate much of the outlook period for large parts of eastern and northern Australia. That said, as you will see tonight, the GFS is one of the driest models at the moment.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

More details can be found in the video.

GFS 00Z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

A closer look in.

More weather after 9pm tonight looking at all things rainfall.





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