A very deep moisture profile sits right over the NT with a trough over the south and the monsoon trough over Central areas with heavy rainfall leading to flash and riverine flooding the major concern moving through the coming week.

The forecasts have not budged from yesterday so nothing more to add other than be weather aware, following the advice from the emergency services in relation to the flood potential. Conditions may change rapidly in light of the tropical low likely to form over the Gregory or Daly this weekend.

Lets take a look


Rainfall next 10 Days

Rainfall remains to be above average over the southern and central areas of the state with the slow moving trough in the southern areas and the monsoon trough lingering over central areas. The two combining to produce widespread rain and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rainfall daily. Some of the falls could well and truly exceed the monthly average time and time again in some locations over the central parts of the NT. The weather is likely to turn more gusty and wetter over the Top End this weekend as the northwest flow strengthens as a low forms. That low over the Gregory or Tanami may produce significant rainfall leading to additional severe weather risks. No clearance of the weather is expected for the NT at this time.

A broader look at the NT. The flooding risk continues for large areas. Already had reports of 300km of the Stuart Highway cut in recent days over the south into SA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms remain likely NT wide in the same locations with the weather you saw today, likely to be replicated once again on Thursday. Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding are the main issues through this period with extreme flash flooding over the Central areas a risk on Thursday.

Flash Flood Forecast Thursday.

Dangerous flash flooding is possible over the central parts of the state with the troughs merging from the north and south leading to slow moving thunderstorms. As seen in the Kimberly overnight with some areas recording 200mm in quick time, this could be replicated in the NT as well.

Riverine Flood Watch This Week

The heavy rainfall threat continues to drive the risk of riverine flooding to very high levels throughout outback communities. Communities may be cut off for some weeks if rainfall forecasts verify over the next week.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information for the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details in the video but the takeaway items to watch is the trough over the southeast and east producing widespread showers and storms in a humid airmass. Severe weather is possible in the coming days. The tropics dominated by the monsoon, that is expected to strengthen and lead to more frequent rainfall. A tropical low may form over the northwest of WA and lead to flooding rainfall. The medium term carries a very low confidence.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture profile in the short term out to about 10 days is about right against other data sets. Very moist air being drawn through the majority of the country will be lifted by low pressure troughs to produce widespread rain and thunderstorms, locally heavy and leading to flooding over the central and western interior, through the tropics as well. The rainfall intensity and coverage should begin to ease as drier air moves in to southern areas in about 7 days. In the medium term, the forecast accuracy is very poor.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

A closer look in - the rainfall remains of concern for flooding to continue across the NT.

The broader look at the NT is showing the flood risk continues.

More weather information on all things rainfall and modelling coming up this evening. Some major weather events are possible in the medium term.

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