NT - MORE GUSTY STORMS TO CONTINUE UP NORTH WITH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE SOUTH.

Not much change since yesterday we are looking at a dry picture for Central and Southern parts of the NT with a ridge nearby and warm weather to also continue. Seasonal conditions and if you are living in the region you would be aware that this is normal weather for the region into early Autumn.


For the north, interesting weather. I did make note of a tropical low that had formed north of Darwin in convection yesterday, well that feature is slowly moving westwards north of the coast. But it is adding enough wind shear to support more strong to severe storms with damaging winds the big feature.


We have seen in recent days, evening storms race across the Top End and this will continue for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.


So not much change at this time from what we have experienced.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is most widespread north of Elliot with heavy falls possible with thunderstorms north of Adelaide River towards Jabiru and west to Darwin. This triangle will continue to see the most active weather for the coming 10 days. Isolated falls from Elliot to Renner Springs likely to continue through the next week with drier weather from Renner Springs south to Alice Springs. With tropical low pressure in the mix, we may start to see heavier rainfall over coastal areas with these features expected to stay offshore, but you have to watch closely as they can adopt their own path. But clearly, the wettest weather for now staying over the Top End, through the Daly and Gregory.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms, locally severe with gusty winds to continue for the Top End, most likely during the afternoon and evening over the Daly and Gregory. Storms will produce heavy rainfall that could set off some flash flooding but storms are moving at pace so the risk of flash flooding is very low for now.

Damaging Winds Risk Wednesday

Damaging winds are likely to continue for the region with thunderstorms running westwards across the Top End.

DATA - Refer to the video for more information about the short and medium term breakdown details. Really important to gain context to the charts and forecasts here!


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

The pattern as outlined this morning and as I have touched on in recent days, the confidence beyond about Sunday is quite low as the pattern continues to respond to the climate drivers. The SAM has been very hard to pin down. What was looking like a negative phase of the SAM for next week is now turning positive and therefore the models are playing catch up and adjusting from run to run, hence your forecasts keep changing erratically. That will continue. The weather over the north a little more settled into a routine, which is wet with late season heavy falls and severe storms. That moisture may creep southwards through the nation and help to prop up the humidity and rainfall levels into the medium and longer term. So that is something to watch. Over the west, watch the Indian Ocean, the first widespread falls of the seasonal shift may be approaching next week and consequently may move across the remainder of the south of Australia into the end of the month. East coast areas should remain seasonal with warm weather but the rainfall may increase in coverage if the positive SAM strengthens. There is a large scale severe weather event on the GFS this evening that I talk through in greater detail in the video at the top of the page.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture values remain higher than normal for the southern and southeast inland but that should be eroded during the next few days. The drier airmass over the south of the nation will spread northwards over the weekend, though temperatures will remain above the average. Northern tropics under above average moisture values through the coming week to two weeks with an approaching MJO. That MJO may set up a large moisture in feed across the country as I have outlined in recent days, setting up a rain band from WA, through Central Australia and if the fast flow pattern allows, through to the southeast inland.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details and model context

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details and model context

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further details and model context

A closer look in - this forecast is volatile and will change. So be aware of that, anything beyond 5 days is poor confidence.

More in the models and rainfall wrap coming up after 9pm EDT tonight to see what is lurking out in the medium term, are we seeing the Autumn Break becoming a fixture on all data or is it just a GFS thing!?!


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