The weather is starting to contract north out of the southern and central desert country, after widespread flooding and disruption. It is going to be a number of weeks for the flooding to recede and roads to be repaired through the heart of the nation as a result.

For the north, the monsoonal weather is starting to increase in the coming days, with heavy rainfall returning to areas north of about Elliot. There is the high risk of flash flooding in the coming days for major centres north of Elliot including Katherine and Darwin.

The weather remaining wet through the weekend and next week over the north with the weather expected to remain largely unchanged with a slack pressure pattern. The monsoon trough being in the region may lead to further tropical lows redeveloping throughout the northern parts of Australia, which may enhance rainfall next week.

Let's take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Heavy rainfall is starting to ease over the southern districts and will continue to ease through central and eastern areas tomorrow and then contract to be north of Elliot by Friday and over the weekend with dry weather anticipated for areas to the south for the remainder of the outlook. The monsoon trough over the north will lead to widespread rainfall and thunderstorms over the Top End with the high chance of flash and riverine flooding developing as the feature stalls in the region. There may also be tropical lows that form near the trough which could lead to enhanced rainfall chances next week for the Top End.

A broader look at the NT

DATA - Underpinning the forecasts above

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms will begin to contract north out of the southern and central areas tonight and through Thursday with severe thunderstorms a good chance north of about Ali Curung with flash flooding the main concern. There may be intense rainfall near the trough with life threatening flash flooding, with over 20 rescues in the past 24hrs on outback roads, PLEASE BE WEATHER AWARE!

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

The flash flood risk remains very high tonight and again through Thursday but the thunderstorm coverage and flash flood risk will contract northwards through the day and ease by night time over the central areas.

DATA - Refer to video for further analysis and the daily breakdown

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The latest guidance as mentioned is low confidence, this is too dry out the south and central interior, which is a very high chance of occurring. The wet weather moves to the north and east of the nation with prevailing onshore winds driving the wet weather and troughs over the east and north, driving the heavier rainfall. The wettest part of the nation will be over the Top End and Cape York as well as parts of the NSW and QLD coasts. The weather warming up and remaining dry into next week over WA, SA, VIC and TAS. A gorgeous weekend on the way for many areas with a chance to dry out with low humidity and warming temperatures. The weather will start to turn over WA into the new week with a rare Summer front clipping the southern coast with a few showers and brisk southwest winds. The monsoon trough up north may continue to drive tropical downpours, but also may form tropical depressions over the north of WA, NT and QLD. So will be watching closely as this may support wet weather returning to large parts of the nation as we edge into the second half of the month.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The moisture is continuing to move northwards with the monsoon trough being pushed north through to the tropics. A high over the south is sending that drier southerly flow through the south, central and eastern inland of the nation with that likely to be with us for about a week so low rainfall and thunderstorm coverage. The weather over the north will likely remain the most active across the nation. The wildcard system to watch in the short term will be the moisture coming in ahead of change over southern Australia next week and whether that feeds off moisture as it runs into the northeast to easterly flow over the east as well.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information - this is the more likely solution - I think there will be influence from the northern tropics which look to be active.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More details coming up from 8am EDT.

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