The heavy monsoonal weather over the interior parts of the NT continues, with pockets of flash and riverine flooding continuing for some communities, with this expected to increase in coverage over the coming week.

The development of a tropical low over the Gregory or Tanami in the next few days may lead to intense rainfall once again with flood risks becoming heightened. The weather over the remainder of the Barkly and Carpentaria is expected to be stormy with intense rainfall rates near the monsoon trough with flash flooding a high to very high risk.

The very unstable northwest flow over the Top End will lead to showers and storms increasing with a few heavy falls developing over the Daly and Arnhem districts. The weather wettest over the weekend and into next week.

Over the Simpson and Alice Springs region, the persistence of humid and unsettled weather is likely to continue until about early next week with some clearance perhaps possible from about mid next week with a southerly flow developing. The new high ridging over SA allowing for more stable air passing through the south of the NT.

The monsoonal flow over the northern parts will strengthen once again over the Top End which may lead to tropical low formation in about a week's time once again.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

No change to the forecast rainfall, this is additional rainfall to come and could vary in each zone depending on whether you receive a thunderstorm. As seen over the past week, that will dictate the heaviest of the rainfall for your region. The monsoonal low that forms over the weekend near the Gregory or Tanami may lead to excessive rainfall and flooding into next week. Another tropical low over the Gulf may also lead to excessive rainfall developing for the far eastern Carpentaria. Next week some clearance of the humidity is expected over the south which will work it's way north slowly. This will lift the monsoon trough northwards through to the Top End, increasing rainfall over the Top End with heavy falls developing in about a week with the chance of further tropical low development.

Still anticipating some significant rainfall issues throughout the central and southern parts of the NT into northern SA.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

Broadly unstable with a monsoon trough anchored through the interior of the NT through QLD with heavy rainfall near the trough. A deep moisture profile will lead to significant risk of heavy rainfall away from thunderstorms as well. Thunderstorms are most likely during the afternoon and evening through much of the west and north, however the thunderstorms may continue at all hours over the Cape York and Gulf. Squalls to 50 knots are possible with storms over the tropical north.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Flash flooding continues to be highest risk of concern throughout large parts of the NT and QLD during Friday with the high levels of moisture and instability. The thunderstorm coverage is scattered to widespread Friday and that means rainfall is likely to widespread and heavy so the flood risk both flash and riverine is expected to remain high to very high over the west and south as well as the tropics.

DATA - Refer to the short and medium term break down in the video with further details for your part of the world. Medium term off the GFS is very low confidence

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As per the video - not much change in the short term with the monsoon and tropical lows over the north driving the heavy rainfall. Trough slowly moving east through the southeast finally bringing the severe weather risks into the eastern inland this weekend, and clearing to southeast of the very unstable weather. The tropical low over the northwest is something to watch as well which may bring heavy flooding rainfall over the weekend. It is the medium term that offers no help to figuring out the rainfall potential nationally. The guidance is very poor and remains low confidence. More in the models and rainfall analysis this evening.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very deep moisture profile is still with us for a number of days over much of the south but you will find that retreats slowly through the outlook period back to northern and eastern Australia as new high pressure comes in. Once again the signals from the models are for the monsoon to remain in place over northern Australia. What the GFS does with that information is to create tropical lows, which for the most part are bogus, but what that tells me is that the tropical weather is expected to be dominated by the monsoon trough. Where that moisture goes remains to be seen. So stay tuned.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z CMC- Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - the heavy rainfall will continue to cause flooding over the south and central areas and the monsoon trough will bring heavier rainfall than what is advertised here.

A detailed look at all things rainfall and the model data tonight, people getting more itchy about the seeding season ahead, it will be here before you know it!

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