NT - MONSOONAL WEATHER DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND - VERY WET FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.

The very wet weather is expected to continue for the NT for the majority of this week. Up north we have already been seeing the bands of showers and thunderstorms in a very humid airmass that has established.


Over southern and central areas, a trough has developed and is tapping into the deep moisture supply and it to, leading to widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of these locally severe with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main issues. This may cut roads with flooding through this week.


The monsoonal trough may see a low or two form within this feature leading to severe weather risks over northern Australia.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Still anticipating very heavy falls for some areas of the Top End with the development of unstable westerly winds. The presence of the trough and a potential tropical low may see heavy rainfall develop for coastal areas of the Top End. For the southern and central areas, above average rainfall is expected to develop as the moisture continues to remain over the region, lifted by low pressure troughs, seeing widespread showers and storms about. Local flooding is a concern and some areas could be cut off for days/weeks.

A broader look at the NT

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Widespread thunderstorms across the NT tonight will continue into Thursday with severe thunderstorms likely in almost all districts, with heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding the main issue but damaging winds cannot be ruled out either.

Flash Flood Risk Thursday

Heavy rainfall developing with thunderstorms, could see some locations record up to 50mm/hr with bands of storms over the Top End, coastal areas including Darwin and Palmerston and through Central areas including Tennant Creek.

Damaging Winds Risk Thursday

Damaging winds may be an issue over northern and central areas with bands of thunderstorms leading to squalls of up to 110km/h.

DATA - Refer to video for more information on the daily breakdown


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

As mentioned in the video above, the features to watch are the trough over SA, does that stay stationary, bringing heavy rainfall for multiple days over central SA through to the NT with flooding a high risk, or does that trough weaken or does it move east? This will dictate weather over the central and eastern parts of the nation and this is what models are struggling with. The GFS keeps it stationary. Very humid air and stable weather for the eastern inland of the nation with above average humidity values will make things feel pretty foul. Showers and thunder for the east coast in onshore winds, some of those could be heavy for NSW and southeast QLD. The tropics, the feature to watch is the monsoon trough and whether a low pressure system forms in the trough. If it does develop, does that form near WA, NT or QLD? Models have diverged on that idea as pointed out today, that too has a major impact on rainfall and moisture forecasts moving forward. Finally, the SAM, does that turn neutral allowing the west of the nation to cool down for a number of days thanks to the westerly wind belt moving north. Does that westerly wind belt flush the humidity north? Plenty of moving pieces and sadly more questions than answers right now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

As mentioned in the video, a very rich and broadly moist airmass will result in high rainfall chances for the nation, and where troughs form, flash and riverine flooding is possible for many areas through this period. The monsoon over the north looking to crank as well, and that will add more moisture to the nation meaning a wet end to January and start of February.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for further details

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for further details

A closer look in - the GFS is aggressive on the idea of the monsoon developing, other models not so much. So more on that coming up this evening.

More coming up after 9pm EDT with a look at the models and the rainfall forecasts. Very much a divergent bunch of data right now.

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