The weather is expected to remain largely unchanged from the guidance yesterday. The monsoon tough over the base of the Top End will merge with another trough over the central and southern areas of the the NT will lead to widespread rainfall and thunderstorm activity which may lead to riverine and flash flooding.

The next 10 days will be wet, stormy and hopefully a bit cooler for many areas after what has been a baking few weeks.

Lets take a look


Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is expected to be heavy and tropical throughout all parts of the NT with flood risks increasing for outback communities and the Top End next week as the monsoon trough begins to strengthen and move back north. The overall pattern is seasonal over the north but unseasonal for southern areas, with the persistent rainfall and flooding concerns continuing for a significant period of time. So watch the forecasts here very closely in these remote areas as communities would be likely cut off.

Rainfall through the interior is excessive and will lead to areas of flooding. Be sure to prepare for flooding but hope for the best that totals forecast ease.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

No change to the guidance across the NT with significant rainfall to occur with thunderstorms in all areas highlighted. The risk of severe weather from thunderstorms remains moderate to high as per recent days. The flash flood risk is the major concern for many regions.

Flash Flood Risk Wednesday

Flash flooding continues to be a high risk for many locations throughout the Top End. Flash flooding from thunderstorms may cut off and inundate communities in quick time with slack movement of thunderstorms and may also cut off major roads as well for periods of time.

Riverine Flood Watch This Week

A look at the tropics this week, there are already areas of flooding and riverine flooding through the areas highlighted in green and will continue to increase mainly for inland areas. Coastal areas will see periods of flash and riverine flooding, but the long duration flooding looks unlikely this week, but that may change next week with a monsoonal low moving into the Top End with the monsoon trough moving north.

DATA - Refer to video for more on the daily breakdown for the short and the medium term

00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

The pattern in the short term largely unchanged in the short term. Severe weather over the south and east will gradually contract further east over the coming days but possibly return next week. The heavy rainfall risks leading to flooding over the inland of the nation remains in the short term. The monsoonal low over the NT may spread into WA and bring up rainfall chances for a drier WA, this would then shift rainfall chances across SA and VIC into the medium term. The east coast, keep an eye on the trough next week, we could see a significant rainfall event develop between the easterly winds and the trough that hangs up in the medium term. Heavy moisture will sit over QLD and this will lead to persistence forecasting, so not much change to what you have right now.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The very deep moisture is with much of the nation for the coming 10 days before we start to see the pattern shift. Clearly the GFS prints out the impact of what a tropical low does running through WA. That is an idea that is on the board but not well supported. The monsoon trough may snap back and offshore at the end of the run increasing the cyclone risks over the north of the nation.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information.

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information.

A closer look in - more details in the video but watch the medium term for moisture to merge with troughs over the east in easterly winds.

The flood risk remains for most of the NT.

More details coming up tonight with a look at the full model suite and the rainfall projections for the short, medium and long term.

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