NT - MONSOONAL BREAK CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH, BECOMING MILDER OVER THE SOUTH

The weather over the NT, very much benign, which is not unusual in monsoonal break conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for the days ahead over the Top End, many areas likely though going dry with stifling humidity.


In the south, mainly south of Tennant Creek, hot and dry with sunny skies. There may be a southerly change sending in cooler air into the southern third of the NT by the weekend into next week moderating heat levels.


No rainfall impacts expected now from Anika through the NT, with the moisture from that feature most likely washing out over the interior of WA.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Very much returning to seasonal values over much of the NT with no rainfall expected south of Tennant Creek or Ali Curung for the coming 10 days. To the north of there, isolated showers and thunderstorms to about Katherine and then the coverage tending scattered to Darwin, through Jabiru into Ngukkur. The weather is likely to be below average in terms of rainfall spread during the coming days but the rainfall expected to increase in scale during the weekend into next week with deeper moisture and instability returning for the Top End.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

The routine isolated to scattered pop up showers and thunderstorms over the Top End, mainly north of Elliot. Some of the storms may produce moderate rainfall but overall the monsoonal break conditions leading to below average rainfall for Thursday in comparison to averages at this time of year.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information for the daily breakdown and looking at the medium term


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more where I will cut down the amount of reading tonight, however the major weather event on the east coast in the short term, Anika passing through northwest WA feeding a trough moving into the southeast which runs into residual moisture over the eastern inland, will lead to another severe weather event for NSW, VIC and QLD this weekend. And the chance of a little quieter weather? What are the chances?

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Another soupy 7 days for the east and north of the nation but the drier air is trying to push the wet air out of the region but it is having a tough time. While there appears to be quieter weather in the medium term, I do not buy it. Not with the positive SAM phase which could eclipse the phase we have just endured. So on that logic, wetter conditions into the medium term for the east and drier weather for the west seems like a logical outcome for the moment. The MJO is the wild card hustler at the moment, will it redevelop and increase moisture over the northern tropics?

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for further information

A closer look in - fairly routine weather and typical of March across the NT.

More coming up tomorrow from 8am EDT. I want to get this rainfall event in the east and TC Anika through the nation before revisiting the medium and longer term rainfall projections with heaps of contamination in the short term with these events so a better look tomorrow or Friday.





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