NT - MONSOONAL BREAK AND HINTS OF A BUILD DOWN THIS WEEK, BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

The weather for the NT returning to settled for this time of year. March can be very vigorous with cyclone activity and widespread heavy monsoonal weather. The burst via the MJO has been realised in this phase, with Anika born out of that and around 200-300mm last week falling over many areas. But with the cyclone activity, it is common for the cyclones to pull the weather away from the remainder of the tropics.


We are seeing only scattered showers and storms through the Top End this week and isolated showers and thunderstorms for the remainder down to Tennant Creek. Dry weather for the Alice for now.


The moisture from Anika sitting to the west is expected to stay over in WA and surge southwards through that state so no influence is expected at this time.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Back to the broader view and conditions are fairly benign for this time of year with seasonal conditions and rainfall expectations over northern areas with the usual showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening for inland areas and coastal showers and storms in the weak northwest flow for the Top End. Over the remainder of the NT, south of Tennant Creek is dry for a while with a dry airmass and ridging, the pattern stagnant and unlikely to change too much through the period for the NT.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

Thunderstorms are forecast for the Top End with storms scattered in nature so back to monsoonal break conditions. No severe weather expected. It is a period of non exceptional thunderstorm activity for the NT.

DATA - Refer to video for more information and for the daily run down


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more analysis in the video, but the areas of concern to watch have been well forecast ahead of time, and we will start to see them unfolding now. So that being the flood event for the NSW coast and adjacent inland, the approach and passage of TC Anika and the severe weather potential for inland areas with flooding. We may see another wave of low pressure in the upper levels on Friday drive severe weather for eastern SA, VIC, NSW/ACT and southern QLD this weekend with follow up severe storms. The remainder of the nation away from the southeast, east and northwest looking at seasonal conditions. In the medium term you can see the impacts of the positive SAM phase.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

The very deep moisture profile is expected to dominate for the coming week over the northwest and over the east and southeast with a dynamic atmosphere in both locations leading to the above average rainfall. Elsewhere, the drier air is planted firmly over the southwest of the nation and in pockets of central and eastern inland areas on the backside of low pressure moving through the east. The pattern may begin to shift in the medium term but at this stage, it looks like the models are keen to keep the easterly wind bias in place.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more details

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to video for more details

A closer look in - monsoonal break conditions bringing seasonal rainfall expectations, but the rainfall totals may increase once again after this period.

More coming up tonight with a look at all things modelling and rainfall after 9pm EDT.

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