NT - MONSOON TROUGH HEADING NORTH - DRIER PHASE FOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS.

That is good news, as we can now start to see the flooding subside in the coming week with no additional rainfall forecast for the southern and central parts.


It is a different story for northern areas, especially north of about Renner Springs, where rainfall becomes more scattered and heavy. The most widespread heavy falls are expected north of Adelaide River. This will be where the trough becomes stalled out.


An unstable westerly flow will continue to the north of the trough so that showery, thundery weather with heavy falls and cooler than normal weather over the Top End continues.


The risk of tropical depression formation is increasing as well as we track the monsoon trough northwards. Some chance of enhanced rainfall about the Top End. A low risk of cyclone formation right now but that could change in the coming 10 days.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall remains most widespread and heavy over the Top End as the monsoon trough moves northwards and out of the Barkly. The heavy rainfall is expected to increase in coverage over the Top End as the trough taps into the deeper moisture profile in the westerly flow and stalls out, meaning that storms that form near the trough will become slow moving and lift the risk of dangerous flash flooding at times in the next few days. The forecast becomes tricky next week as the risk of tropical low formation returns and this will see your data sets become quite excitable in the days ahead.

A broader look at the NT

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

It is a different story for northern areas, especially north of about Renner Springs, where rainfall becomes more scattered and heavy. The most widespread heavy falls are expected north of Adelaide River. This will be where the trough becomes stalled out.

Flash Flood Risk Friday

Heavy rainfall with coastal showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring flash flooding to urban settings which we have seen in recent days. Thunderstorms near the monsoon trough will deliver the heavier rainfall rates with flash flooding a very high risk north of Elliot. Thunderstorms will also be gusty about the west coast of the Top End.

Tropical Depression Watch - February 4-11th 2021

There is a high to very high risk of tropical depression risk with the chance of enhanced rainfall over the northern Kimberly through the Top End, Gulf Of Carpentaria and east of Cape York. The risk of cyclone activity remains low through this time but depression formation is being picked up on the Euro and CMC through this period and careful analysis will continue to figure out where that will be. There is certainly a higher chance of cyclone activity as we move through the middle to end of February.

DATA

Refer to the video for more details on the daily breakdown.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 16 Days

More details in the video but to repeat, a quieter week period with drier air over the southern 2/3rds of the nation. The northern third remains humid and unsettled with a monsoon trough nearby and another trough over the east will weaken as a high moves over the south and east reducing the showery weather.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

The significant moisture is continuing to push north through the nation and take a look at the GFS suggesting that conditions are going to reflect early Autumn across the nation with very dry air even into the medium term. Not so sure on that still, given that the MJO rotates around the ensemble data sets are wetter than the single runs which populate all the wonderful apps, so caution required in interpreting the data. The short term at least out to about 10 days will be drier and quieter through the southern two thirds. More humid in the east with a few showers and onshore winds and heavier moisture should be in play over northern Australia, regardless of what this says.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to video for more information

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Refer to video for more information

More details coming up from 8am EDT.


3 views0 comments