The rainfall chances are increasing for southern districts this weekend, with some areas likely to see 1-3 months worth of rainfall out of this event, again highlighting the wet phase over the nation with the climate drivers supporting the elevated rainfall chances.

For the north, the usual song and dance, random pop up showers and storms expected to continue with a deep moisture supply and the usual diurnal cycle helping to kick them off. The coverage not widespread with a dome (upper high) over head limiting development.

Lets take a look

Rainfall next 10 days

The wettest part of the nation could indeed be down through southern areas of the NT this weekend into next week, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some heavy with the risk of flash flooding in outback communities. Areas of rain on Sunday into Monday will clear eastwards and then drier through most of next week. Up north, the usual pop up shower and thunderstorm activity will continue. Some of that moisture may recycle southwards down the Stuart Highway with the risk of rainfall increasing into the Barkly towards the end of the period.

A broader look towards the rain in the south.

Thunderstorm Forecast Thursday

Thunderstorms are again possible over the north of the NT with the usual wind convergence playing out during the afternoon. For the south, along the SA border, elevated thunderstorms are possible throughout the day as a trough moves westwards throughout the region.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The weather pattern is very tricky to pin down so I will keep it short and sweet because the analysis is quite limited with diverging modelling. The weekend system is still being modelled poorly but if you are living through NSW, QLD and northern VIC through to northern SA and the southern NT, you have the better chance of seeing rainfall develop over the coming week. Who gets what remains to be seen and as appropriate rainfall forecasts carry low confidence straps for the eastern states. The west will see another burst of colder weather after a milder weekend with a strong cold front next week, that will send a cooler pulse of air through much of the SWLD and points further north and east. Meanwhile the weather over the north and east looks unsettled with periods of rain, scattered showers and storms in a humid airmass. The north getting more unsettled as we cruise into the wet season.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days

The PW Anomalies paint the picture of the deep impulse of moisture from the tropical north being drawn south and fed into the trough and low pressure coming out of WA through the weekend. The moisture is likely to linger through interior parts of the nation while the west of the nation sits under mainly dry air. A stronger front will approach the SWLD of WA and send another strong pulse of drier colder air into the western half but may spread into western SA and stop there. The blocking pattern developing in the east lends itself to see moisture deepen through the eastern two thirds of the nation.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 days

Rainfall accumulation carries a very low confidence in the east even on the Euro and I will suggest that if you are relying on your yr.no sites and other apps, they are useless, your numbers will change and the forecasts for rainfall across the boards, all agencies, carries low confidence, that is a hallmark of spring forecasting. We won't get a better guide until Friday so watch this space. The nations rainfall guide is determined by the events and evolution of the low pressure system through the central and eastern states over the weekend, once that is decided then confidence grows.

A closer look in

GFS 00z - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 days

Check out the video for more.

I will have a look at all the models and the rainfall potential nationally after 9pm EDT

0 views0 comments