The weather turning more build up like for northern areas. We have slightly colder upper levels which is combining with more moisture to produce scattered showers and storms over the Top End. For the south, it is becoming hotter and drier with a persistent ridge of high pressure leading to stable weather, which again is quite normal for this time of year.
Lets take a look at the latest details.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
Rainfall is limited to northern areas for this period which is very normal, that carries a higher confidence, rainfall distribution does not in warm random airmass convection, and many who live up here understand one location can get 50mm and down the road get 0mm. But we are moving into this time of year where the rainfall forecasts are hard to draw, but we are seeing it return to the charts. So enjoy the last pops of drier weather for northern areas. For the south, I am drawing the moisture coming south, but with lighter falls for this moment, but could change again with the timing of the front over the south crucial to the formation of this rain band.
Broader view - Rainfall forecasts are all over the shop and continue to be low confidence regarding how much moisture is propelled south and east through the NT.
Thunderstorm Forecast Monday
Thunderstorms are most likely to during the afternoon and evening as a sea breeze front moves southeast inland from the coast and converges with the southeasterly winds inland. This will be the focus for pulse thunderstorms which may be gusty with brief heavy rainfall. Thunderstorms are not likely to be severe.
00Z EURO - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The showery airmass with a cold front is expected to move northeast and bring moderate coverage of showers to the eastern coast of NSW on Monday through Wednesday, while the rest of the nation resides under high pressure. Then we track the high through to the east and by Wednesday the majority of the nation should be drying out with stable air. Up north, on the periphery of the high, humidity will lead to showers and thunderstorms each afternoon. A front approaching the southwest of the nation during Wednesday night into Thursday may bring another large burst of rainfall through the region, before that system moves east. It is anticipated the system will drag in a large amount of moisture from the northwest but as mentioned in the video, become decoupled from the lifting mechanism, that may see rainfall become patchy and light over SA before reappearing over NSW and VIC. It is a low confidence forecast.
00Z EURO - Precipitable Water Anomalies Next 10 days
Precipitable water anomalies are painting the picture of the battle underway between the dry air and the humid air up north, they are becoming intertwined, meaning rainfall chances are increasing then decreasing from run to run. As mentioned on Friday and yesterday plus in the video, we are tracking a drier change through SA with the system falling apart from SA, but then a rain band may reemerge over the eastern states as a trough finds the moisture and lifts back into areas of rainfall there. So there is a heightened risk of better rainfall once again over the east, the southern states probably miss out with this feature and QLD again looking dry, but watch the trough become stuck over QLD later in the run, as that is a chance of setting up the inland trough for QLD and maybe bringing up the chances of rainfall to end the month and to kick off October. The northern tropics also battling with the drier and humid air.
00Z EURO - Precipitation Next 10 days
Lean is the word I would use nationally, with another quiet week, but it is low confidence as outlined in the video.
I will have a wrap of the models later on tonight regarding rainfall later this week, as there is a lot riding on this system for many in SA and points east.