NT - HUMID WITH THUNDERY SHOWERS OVER THE TOP END. HOT AND DRY OVER THE SOUTH.

Though moisture values may creep up through the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere later this week, leading to thickening cloud and a few spots of rainfall associated with high based storms. That is in advance of a milder change sweeping in over the weekend. Up north, random airmass thunderstorms and showers are in progress, expected to continue in the coming days.


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Thunderstorm Forecast Tuesday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely to develop once again along the northwest sea breeze front as it moves southeast from the coast and collides with the dry winds coming in from the southeast. This will see pulse storms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall for no more than half an hour before raining themselves out. A chance of morning thunderstorms off the Daly Coast Tuesday.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall as mentioned, becomes near on impossible to draw in the absence of an organised trough or low pressure system. So expect there to be isolated good falls in areas that are shaded in. Over the south, no rainfall drawn in but a few light falls are possible with high based thunderstorms moving through with a trough and upper level moisture streaming through the jet stream.

Territory View.

Euro 00z Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - next 10 days

The cold air pool over NSW is now on the way towards the east and the rest of the nation is now in sinking air motion under high pressure. A colder southerly is working its way north through the east. In the west, temperatures are on the rise as the winds veer into the northeast in coming days ahead of the next major front which is expected to bring widespread showers and storms through the region. The front will then move east but be forced southeast by high pressure blocking the Tasman and a strong upper high over the nation. The front and trough will still bring down moisture from the northwest and patchy rainfall under a large cloud band is likely for inland SA but more widespread over NSW and northern VIC. The weather remains dry for much of inland Australia during the coming 10 days with dry air damming. Up north, the build up preview will soon be flushed out by drier air later this week, but return in a week's time, so the seasons are shifting. A follow up front next week may reinforce below average temperatures for coastal areas from WA through to the southeast with light rainfall.

Euro 00z Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

This paints the picture well, with drier air over the nation at the moment being propelled north by southerly winds as high pressure digs in from the west and a cold front surges through the Tasman. The weather controlled by high pressure leading to sinking air motion so clear skies expected. Otherwise the next major pulse of moisture comes down from the Indian Ocean later this week and that looks better with regards to the IOD. The only issue is that it is decoupled from the cold front and low so not much rainfall but a lot of cloud will form. Then moisture may return via easterly winds over northern and eastern Australia next week while frontal weather and southwest winds keeps the drier air surging through southern and central parts of the nation, the battle between the airmasses continues.

Euro 00z Rainfall for the next 10 days

Rainfall as mentioned above in my forecast, limited to coastal areas and focussed mainly with the system rolling in from WA mid week and into the southeast during Friday and into the weekend. Then not much next week.

I will have another update at 9pm looking at the rainfall from all modelling - harvest is coming soon and people need to know the latest so this should be appointment reading - it is not a tome of reading but important information.

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