Traditional weather developing for the NT with a good supply of humidity running over the north and northeast with light easterly winds. With an upper high in place, the showers and storms are likely to be more isolated in nature at this time. The coverage increases later this week into the weekend.
For the south, the weather is dry and settled with a ridge in place, while rainfall events run around the nation leaving Central Australia in dry sinking air.
Lets take a look at the very latest.
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The weather is expected to turn more humid over northern areas with limited rainfall connected to the isolated showers and thunderstorms across the northern parts. There may be a few showers and storms over inland areas south of Ti Tree over the weekend and next week but the risk is deemed too small to draw in at this time.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution Next 10 days
The pressure pattern is largely unchanged as we track a deep trough into a moist airmass sitting over the eastern inland of the nation. This is leading to a significant increase in rainfall across the eastern states during the coming days, starting with showers and storms throughout the east and parts of eastern SA on Tuesday. A weak trough will likely move east to clip the SWLD of WA bringing a few showers during Wednesday ahead of a stronger system during Thursday. Meanwhile, Wednesday through Thursday is where we see the east coast event peak with significant rainfall and thunderstorm activity across QLD, NSW and VIC. Some of the storms could be severe and flash flooding is a high risk. SA could see some reasonable rainfall as the low slowly moves over the region, meandering about with one or two storms or the Ag Areas, better rainfall for the eastern districts. Over in the west, we will see another system pass through on Friday with areas of rain and a few thunderstorms about, this rainfall the most widespread of the week and likely extending east and south throughout the state. This system will quickly run across to be near the Eyre Peninsula during the weekend bringing gusty winds and showers, then onwards to the southeast by Sunday. Another system is likely to then move through the eastern states bringing a burst of showers and gusty winds for the region. Yet another system is likely to approach WA at the end of the period bringing further rain periods.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies Next 10 days
The PW Anomalies are largely unchanged with a decent supply of moisture running down the GDR this evening, and starting to already be picked up by a trough producing showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms are putting out a decent amount of rainfall through southern QLD. The moisture will continue to be drawn south into NSW and VIC on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms breaking out. The moisture may creep into eastern SA and then be wrapped into the low pressure as it rolls into the southeast, backwashing moisture over SA Wednesday and Thursday with increasing showers. A deep pool of moisture sits over the eastern inland during the second half of this week, and it will not be until Saturday that the moisture begins to move out. Another surge of deep moisture comes through the SWLD of WA, this will be the focus of the most widespread rainfall for the region this week. Some of the rainfall could be heavy thanks to the deeper moisture out of the Indian Ocean. Over the tropics the moisture should begin to deepen once again and likely to run southwards next week.
Euro 00z - Rainfall Distribution Next 10 days
Rainfall is largely confined to southern and eastern portions of the nation, the heaviest of it coming through this week over the eastern inland of Australia. Flooding is a concern for areas along the GDR in NSW, particularly the catchments over the central and southern reaches of the range. The flood risk also high over northeast VIC. QLD can expect the best rainfall chances for inland areas since July. The weather does not quite clear the eastern inland through the weekend, with still scattered showers about, but the rainfall intensity will be diminished somewhat. The rainfall will be most widespread over in the west of the nation by the time we hit the end of the week with a good supply of moisture coming into the system as it passes through from the Indian Ocean through to the southeast. Over the north, scattered showers and storms will begin to redevelop as moisture deepens and the upper levels become more unstable.
Closer look - falls coming up over the south
Falls coming up over the Top End but you will pay for it in humidity.
Apologies again about the technical difficulties. I will alert if there are any reasons to go to the forum which is the back up blog if this goes down. More on the climate outlook tomorrow.