NT - HUMID WEATHER RETURNS TO THE NORTH, A COOLER AIRFLOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE SOUTH

But not as cold as last week, a southerly will work it's way north this weekend as new high pressure moves east. This will replace the last cell pushing east of the nation, but the scale of this feature is not as large as the previous upper high.


That bodes well for those wanting rain over the north, as the upper heights are colder and supportive of showers returning to the forecasts as moisture intrudes from the northeast and east in coming days.


Lets take a look at the latest.

Rainfall for the next 10 days.

Rainfall is largely confined to the northern Top End at this time, starting from Saturday afternoon and increasing in coverage from Sunday through Wednesday. This is solely diurnal based meaning that the activity will peak with the rise of temperatures during the afternoon. The weather over the south largely fine and dry for now, but moisture may begin to be drawn south along the western border with WA with scattered showers and storms possible through the outback during this time next week. Something to watch, as the chance of more above average rainfall continues.

Broader view showing the moisture seeping southwards

00Z Euro Surface Pressure Pattern for the coming 10 days

An active trough and front to pass through the southeast this weekend has remained largely unchanged in modelling, perhaps a tad better coverage of showers coming through southeast NSW Sunday into Monday. Then drier weather for southern and western Australia through the first half of this week coming while the east coast sees showers developing in onshore winds. Again the battle of the Tasman Sea and the frontal weather passing over WA from mid next week the major features to watch to determine the coverage of rainfall from this time next week over desperate parts of SA and through the eastern inland into next weekend. The tropics, humid and unsettled from Sunday and through next week as the build up continues.

00z Euro Rainfall for the coming 10 days

Rainfall largely confined to the southeast coastal areas this weekend while the rest of the nation remains dry under high pressure. Then we see a high move into the southeast clearing skies, but sending onshore winds and bringing coastal wet weather to NSW and southern QLD. Trade winds over QLD running moisture through the north of the nation and then the next major front will roll through WA mid next week and that clearly is the point of interest for many areas downstream of that system rolling through. Where does the rainfall initiate over the east is determined by what happens over the Tasman Sea as outlined in the video and in previous analysis.

Darwin region.

00z Euro Precipitable Water Anomalies next 10 days

The PW anomalies stay persistently drier than normal through early next week over the east, but starting to transition a little earlier over the western and central inland, giving rise to high based showers and cloudy skies. A strong cold front will act as a pulling mechanism to drag moisture from the tropics into WA and through SA and then the southeast. Where the cold front meets that moisture determines rainfall spread. This stage, it is as per yesterday a line ball for SA with the bulk of the wet weather, further east through the state and once again into the eastern inland, but this will most likely chop and change. The tropics are becoming soupy and unstable throughout the outlook, feeding more moisture south through the nation.

I will have another update during Saturday - have a great weekend!!

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