And warming up over the southern parts of the NT with a dry airmass rotating through a high pressure system passing over the nation. The skies clear and dry.
The north, feeling pretty good under a very dry airmass for this time of year, but the weather is expected to turn back to the seasonal humid build up conditions with cloud developing and showers maybe returning next week.
Lets take a look
Rainfall for the next 10 days
The weather not really expected to produce much rainfall over the region and largely confined to the back half of the outlook up north as that moisture returns. There may be little break outs of showers and thunderstorms down the Stuart Highway through to SA and the APY Lands, with moisture and instability rising at the end of the month and a few morning showers over coastal areas from next week. Storms won't return to bring relief to the heat and humidity up north until early October.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The pressure pattern quiet until this weekend. The weather over the southwest remains warm to hot ahead of a trough developing bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region, not widespread falls but some decent storms could develop over the southern interior. A new high passing through the southeast of the nation will bring a southeast change up the NSW coast driving light showers, which will then move into SEQ during early next week. This front will stall out over QLD while a trough forms over inland QLD. Onshore southeast winds will feed the trough driving showers and thunderstorms. The moisture then moves south in an upper northerly flow and will be lifted by the trough coming out of WA to see showers and storms break out. The rest of the north of the nation turns hot and humid ahead of weather turning thundery into early October.
Euro 00z -Precipitable Water - Next 10 days
The PW Anomalies paint the same picture. The dry air leading to the dry skies and settled weather under the high will take about 5 days to be eroded by moisture coming in from the easterly winds and over the west of the nation via the Indian Ocean. This moisture looks to converge over eastern Australia which is where you will find the heavier of the rainfall next week. Another surge of moisture comes in from the northwest of the nation and moisture left over from the lead system next week remains over the eastern inland leading to another chance of rainfall breaking out at the end of the month into early October from WA through to VIC and NSW. Up north, the humidity returns from the weekend with suppressed build up conditions expected next week.
Euro 00z - Rainfall - Next 10 days
Rainfall largely unchanged from this morning with the pattern shift taking place this weekend over the east with humidity returning. That will break out in showers for the coast of NSW and QLD and inland showers and thunderstorms for central and southern QLD early next week. Another trough over the west bringing showers and thunderstorms with that system expected to move eastwards into the moisture coming over the eastern inland, so this is where at this time, the bulk of the wet weather will unfold next week. Heavy falls are possible. Rainfall will return after this period with a follow up system from WA, through SA and into the eastern inland during early October, just outside of this window. You see no rainfall with the Euro but there is moisture available and with broad troughing, rainfall is likely to break out in that configuration.
NT View - THIS WILL CHANGE - Refer to my later post at 9pm tonight looking at the full suite of rainfall data for those needing to know how much is coming. The longer term models hold out more rainfall opportunities for the northern parts of the nation so it will be important to watch this space and check back regularly.
More at 9pm tonight.