NT - HOT AND DRY FOR THE ENTIRE TERRITORY, BUT HUMIDITY IS COMING BACK.

And so are the storms. So after this scorching period of weather with dry air and temperatures into the 40s, the weather is set to resume seasonal expectations with scattered showers and thunderstorms developing from later this week.


The weather over the south generally dry but keeping an eye on a low passing through central areas during early next week with showers and thunderstorms redeveloping as some of that moisture from northern areas is drawn into this feature.


The overall trend of turning wetter as we go through November looks to be a fair forecast still.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall is anticipated to be non existent during the coming 2 days with a dry airmass and upper high combining to bring dry conditions. The showers and thunderstorms will return over northern districts during the back half of this week and become more widespread over the weekend and into next week. Some of the storms may be gusty and heavy, thanks to the high levels of instability left over by the near record heat. The rainfall may also start to return to southern districts with a low pressure system developing over the SA/NT border. This may bring some heavier falls from this time next week.

A broader look at rainfall for the entire NT. The numbers are creeping up slowly.

Thunderstorm Forecast Wednesday

A slight chance of thunderstorms over the far southwest bordering SA and WA and along the north coast or Tiwi Islands during the afternoon and evening. No severe weather expected

DATA - More details can be found in the video at the top


00Z CMC - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 Days

I am aligning more with the CMC and Euro on this sequence, the GFS is just not rendering the outlook as per the major data sets given that the GFS ensemble data is wetter than what is publicly available. At this stage we have 2 large scale rainfall events to watch through southern and eastern parts of the nation during this period. Also the tropics are expected to fire up in response to the record heat we have been observing during the past few days. The response to that is a sharp increase in convective activity. That has been my experience from living there for many years and this model sees that. The moisture deepens throughout the majority of the nation next week with the second system and the rainfall chance extend once again mainly over the eastern 2/3rds of the nation. WA may see more rainfall again with this first system during the coming 36hrs and once again with the developing 2nd system later in the weekend. Above average rainfall and generally below average temperatures (away from the tropics) is expected during this period.

00Z CMC - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video above for more details.

00Z CMC - Precipitable Water Values - Next 16 Days

Refer to the video above for more details

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 16 Days

Rainfall is expected to be heaviest in a band from southern WA through Agricultural SA into VIC and southern NSW and the ACT with the first feature. Storms for central and northern parts of NSW in the warmer sector of this system. The second system will provide more widespread rainfall and increase rainfall over the northern tropics and spread that throughout the eastern 2/3rds of the nation.

A closer look in. Your number will continue to evolve.

I will have the latest on all things rainfall and the modelling tonight - the divergence is still present across the board, but I will break down what is plausible and what is not in the update after 9pm


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