It has been a pleasant few days, despite the record temperatures set on Tuesday. The weather is anticipated to turn more humid, even though the day time maximums are coming down, but heat levels will tick up into the 40s in some locations with the humidity values growing.
Over the south the dry seasonal weather will continue this weekend but the temperatures are anticipated to increase next week ahead of a trough passing through southern Australia with no rainfall expected but a spike in temperatures are likely once again.
A system following later next week could bring a burst of showers and storms next weekend over Central and Southern areas.
Rainfall next 10 days
Rainfall is likely remaining coastal for the Top End with not much being drawn in just yet however these numbers are anticipated to increase as we track through the next few days as more of the humid spell creeps into the forecast window. It is a similar story for the south where the moisture is anticipated to sweep south down the Stuart Highway and we could see widespread showers developing later in the period if not just outside this period.
Broader view. Dry down the highway to Adelaide for now.
Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days
The pattern remains mostly dry and settled for the coming days, despite a fast moving cold front passing through the southeast with a burst of showery windy weather and a few storms. The weekend is where the weather starts to shift nationally. Firstly in the west with a trough deepening over the inland triggering scattered showers and storms, moisture improves the coverage of showers offshore the SWLD generally, the circulation broad but the wet weather will be about. Over in the east a trough will develop over the eastern inland of Australia with a stalled boundary off the east coast of QLD sending easterly winds and that moisture along the coast inland to help produce showers and thunderstorms through inland areas. The moisture will be taking a journey south as upper level northerly winds develop between the high in the east and the approaching trough out of the west with the moisture over NSW and VIC being lifted by that WA trough and low into a multi day rain and storm event. It still appears the best of it will fall east of SA. The rainfall heavy at times and could lead to areas of flooding through NSW and northeast VIC. There is another system to follow later in the period which I will cover off later on this evening. The north hot and becoming humid with showers and storms developing. Showers and storms will also move into QLD during the mid to latter part of next week, especially through southern and central inland areas.
Euro 00z - Rainfall - Next 10 days
Rainfall distribution is largely unchanged from last night with the bulk of it falling over the eastern states and across the SWLD of WA with a trough passing through this weekend. The event over VIC and NSW appears to be the most productive on the board, but keeping an eye on the follow up system over in WA later next week which could tap into deeper moisture coming in from the Indian Ocean. There should be a good coverage of showers and thunderstorms during the coming week over QLD but the falls more scattered and patchy, where the rainfall much more widespread over the southeast inland. Lighter falls for SA, surrounded by all the potential but the second system coming out of SA may provide better rainfall opportunities in that configuration. The northern tropics will see showers return once the upper high breaks down next week, but isolated falls are possible.
Closer look - Moisture returns later in the period but the rainfall will be very suppressed under an upper high, once the upper high moves off then the coverage rainfall will return.
Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Anomalies - Next 10 days
It is all about the available moisture content and where it is travelling in the coming days, and you can clearly see from the chart below and the modelling again tonight that there is good agreement about the moisture over the east being drawn south, the moisture over the west being drawn southeast into the Bight and bypassing SA, however the lifting mechanism runs into the eastern inland with widespread rainfall developing. Then another surge of moisture is expected to approach WA later next week and the moisture over inland NSW and QLD will retrograde back through Central Australia and be held up and primed to be absorbed by the next system coming out of WA, fingers crossed this behaves better for SA. The tropics turning soupy through the outlook but the upper high needs to break down for showers and storms to return.
I will take a look at the full model suite and the rainfall potential in the next week after 9pm once all the data is in.