NT - HIGH HEAT OVER THE NORTH COMING DOWN IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

But with the temperatures coming down, the humidity is set to return gradually through the outlook period, so the numbers coming down really means nothing over the north, 38C today in Darwin was a new September record.


The weather is expected to turn soupy over the north as mentioned, but suppressed under an upper ridge so no rainfall expected just yet.


The showers and thunderstorms are likely to return just outside of this forecast window and I think with the heat today, the build up is well and truly underway.

Rainfall for the next 10 days

Not much, a big bag of nothing, but again refer to the video because it reflects the shift in conditions that are on the way with more moisture, troughs returning over inland areas, and this will pull in more moisture over tropical areas with rainfall chances increasing for the start of October.

Comfort Levels from today.

They will improve during Wednesday but the humidity will return, the heat has been much more excessive than forecast which shows you build up is well and truly here for Season 2021/22.

Euro 00z - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 10 days

The pattern is dry for much of the nation over the coming 5 days, with a large centre of high pressure coming in, combining with the dry air to bring clear skies. Frost will be widespread and could be heavy over the southern and eastern inland of the nation Wednesday and Thursday morning. Some frosts could be heavy. Then warming up through the week, away from the southeast where onshore winds will continue the shower coverage and cloud. Next week the pattern turns and in line with the GFS, the majority of wet weather begins over the eastern seaboard and inland of NSW and QLD with another trough developing over the southwest with showers and thunderstorms about. All of this weather is expected to converge through the Central parts of the nation and then spread throughout the eastern and southern inland.

Euro 00z - Precipitable Water Values - Next 10 days

Moisture is limited through the nation through until the weekend as high pressure and dry trapped under the high dominates for the rest of the week. The moisture will return via the easterly winds and the Indian Ocean during the weekend and next week. The wet weather will be associated with where the moisture moves and that looks more likely through the eastern inland of the nation and over the southwest to start with and as you can see, travel eastwards from there on. Refer to the GFS to see the possible wetter outcomes in the video.

Euro 00z - Rainfall Next 10 days

Good agreement between GFS and the Euro with the flow pattern over the nation resulting in dry weather nationwide until the weekend or early next week when we see the showers return over the east and with a trough over the southwest with thundery showers possible. Like GFS the trough out west looks to merge with the trough in the east with the chance of rainfall coming up over the southern and eastern states. Refer to the GFS in the video to compare and I am siding with the GFS solution at this time.

GFS 2 Week Rainfall - I will have more on the models later on this evening to contrast and compare on all things rainfall nationwide.

More after 9pm

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