NT - GUSTY STORMS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH AND INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE SOUTH. THE MJO APPROACHES.

The weather has been fairly routine in recent days, we have seen a reduction in the shower and storm coverage as one of the tropical waves passes west, north of the Top End. The little low pressure system that is sitting northwest of the Tiwi Islands is forecast to move west into the Timor Sea and I think this feature will wash out in a heavily wind sheared environment.


More showers and storms will continue across the state as a result with the air unstable and the strong easterly flow aloft meaning that we could see more damaging winds across the weekend with storms.


Further south, HOT! Temperatures reflecting the dry and clear sky allowing for the land to remain hot with an upper high in place.


Under the upper high there will be a series of cold fronts passing through the south of the nation, mainly over the open water but some of the cooler air behind these fronts will lift northwards and start to interact with the warm dry air. Cloud will likely develop and areas of light rain may be a chance from this time next week over the southern areas of the NT.


Over the Top End, with the MJO rotating through the tropical areas, we may see an uptick in the number of showers and storms with tropical lows forming north and west of the nation, and this will need to be watched closely.


Enhanced rainfall and late season cyclone activity in the time of La Nina is not unusual and given that the La Nina is lingering longer than first modelled, the risk is therefore elevated for the Top End.


Lets take a look

FORECAST

Rainfall Next 10 Days

Rainfall largely unchanged for the coming week to ten days, there have been some indications that the rainfall could become quite heavy in the presence of a tropical low or two that may form north and northeast of the NT as the MJO rolls through. So this is something to watch in the coming days.. Moisture may be dragged south and southeast through the jet stream and impact the central and southern parts next week as well. But for now a drier picture for the south is fair, and heavier rainfall the further north up the Stuart Highway you are is also the right call.

Thunderstorm Forecast Friday

No change from yesterday, the storms mainly afternoon and evening with some damaging winds possible with storms over the Top End. The weather could be quite active overnight into Saturday with a Gulf Line passing through from east to west.

Damaging Winds Friday

Damaging winds could once again feature with the storms that form through the afternoon and evening and once again, a chance for squall lines to develop through the evening as well.

DATA - Refer to the video for further information and it is critical to keep check of the data sets to understand where the next major weather events are emerging from outside of this period. It may be quiet now but I am all about preparation and ensuring that information is shared with you as soon as it is available.


00Z GFS - Surface Pressure Pattern and Rainfall Distribution - Next 2 Weeks

There is more information in the video and to cut down the reading, once again due to low confidence this forecast output from the GFS will change meaning your rainfall, temperatures and humidity values presented on some of the apps available to you are flawed as this will not happen. Refer to the video for more details as to where things are headed across the nation.

00Z GFS - Precipitable Water Values - Next 2 Weeks

Moisture content is all over the board from run to run beyond 5 days so unfortunately we have to be patient for another 2 days I reckon before we get more clarity on conditions for next week. But it is important to watch the videos to keep up to date with trends to see where things are likely to head.

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z CMC - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 10 Days

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

00Z GFS - Rainfall Accumulation - Next 2 Weeks

Refer to the video for more context and analysis

More on another brief look at the longer term ensemble models after 9pm EDT tonight. Until we get more clarity it will be low confidence forecasting for most areas of the nation, which is normal for this time of year.

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